With the way the season has unfolded, it’s natural to be pretty disappointed with the League/Morrow trade, but there was another piece of that trade that hasn’t been talked about as much, and his name is Johermyn Chavez. At the time of the deal he was drawing comparisons to Greg Halman, which is reasonable, but he strikes out significantly less, walks more, and has just as much raw power.

The strikeouts are still something that need to be cut down on, but in 2010, his first year of high-A ball, he’s OPS’d .970 and posted his highest walk rate since 2007, at 8.4%. He’s also only 21, and clearly ready to tackle AA pitching. With his skill set, he could turn into something really exciting, really quick. Brandon League may not be living up to his potential, but he, in the long run, might only be a minor part of how we look at this deal.

Word came today from Mariners interim skipper Daren Brown that, understandably, the team will likely hold off on any September call-ups until Tacoma’s season is completely over. They’re currently holding a 3.5 game lead in their division, and a pretty safe bet to make the playoffs. As Shannon Drayer points out, the decision probably would have been a different one if the Mariners had any glaring needs at the big league level, but the fact is, they don’t. They aren’t going anywhere this season, and they have no real reason to steal away Tacoma’s best players right before their post season starts.

Sure, it’s a bit disappointing that we’ll have to wait a little bit longer to see guys like Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, Josh Lueke, and a few others, but they deserve a chance to play for a championship that probably means a lot more to them than we’d think. Plus, as young players, they’ll certainly benefit from experiencing that playoff atmosphere, despite the fact that it’s only AAA.

On top of all that, we now have a win-win situation before us. If the Rainiers succeed in the playoffs, we’ll have something meaningful to root for. And if they don’t, we have the resulting call-ups to look forward to. Yay September!

It’s inevitable. As baseball fans, we naturally love to fantasize about our team of choice acquiring certain players, and because of that, the suggestions are always going to start flooding the internet well before the winter arrives. This is especially true for fans of teams that aren’t in contention, like the Mariners. And can you really blame us? Rosterbation doesn’t really get us anywhere, but at least it stimulates the baseball portions of our mind when actually watching the team play won’t.

That being said, one of the things I’ve started to hear recently is that the Mariners should go after Ted Lilly this winter. Lilly is 34 years old, and he’s just now finishing off a 4 year, $40 million contract. Over those 3+ years with the Cubs, and more recently, the Dodgers, he’s accumulated 9.8 WAR and consistently posted xFIPs around 4. Those are solid numbers, and there’s a pretty good chance he’s got a couple more slightly above league average seasons left in him. So, if the Mariners have the opportunity to sign him to a reasonably priced, 2 year deal, they’d be smart to really consider it. However, it probably wouldn’t be aimed at contending next year – it’d likely be more about shoring up that rotation in 2012.

The one thing I’d warn against, though, is signing him to any type of a long term deal. He’s already 34, and he has started to show some subtle signs of decline this season. His K/9, at 7.24, is the lowest of his career, and his 4.23 xFIP comes with a low BABIP and a fairly high strand rate. The Mariners certainly don’t want to end up being stuck giving millions of dollars to a 38 year old version of Jarrod Washburn 4 years from now. It’s also important to remember that signing him would take away starts from someone like Luke French or Nick Hill in 2011, a season that probably won’t matter, and lost seasons are excellent for developing young players.

So, if the price is right, and he’s willing to accept a shorter term deal, it’s something that might work out. Otherwise, I’d look for other, younger options, or just stick with the rotation we’ve got until 2012.

You won't like Fister when he's angry.

5) The M’s have a plethora of back-of-the-rotation starters: Doug Fister, Lucas French, David Pauley, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ian Snell, Nick Hill, etc. Which of these guys should start 2011 in the rotation, and why?

Griffin: After Felix, Pineda, and Vargas, it’s probably going to be Fister and whoever performs the best in Spring Training. I think the best place for Hyphen at this point is the pen – that’s the only place he’s had consistent success. As for Ian Snell, he no longer appears to have any redeeming qualities as a baseball player. Assuming the Mariners don’t bring in any outside arms, the smart money’s on one of French, Pauley, and Hill for the #5 spot in the rotation.

Taylor: I’m a Nick Hill fan.  Let that be public knowledge.  To the point where I would actually rather see him starting in Seattle over Doug Fister in 2011.  It’s partially irrational, because Fister has shown an ability to be tall and have a degree of deception to his pitches, be somewhat efficient with his pitch count, and accrue flyballs that often don’t leave SafeCo.  Of course, I’m also operating under the assumption that the M’s add another starter (Ricky Nolasco trade, anyone?).  But either way, Nick Hill is awesome.  When I met with Tony Blengino earlier this year, he spoke very highly of Hill.  So, in conclusion, I’d rather see Hill in the 5th slot than any of the other candidates.

Brett: Back of the rotation doesn’t matter too much. But dear god no more Ian Snell please.

6) Russell Branyan and Milton Bradley are nifty players, but they essentially play the same position: DH. Should the M’s keep one of them (or neither) around in 2011?

Griffin: I wouldn’t be opposed to Russell Branyan’s option being exercised, as I think he could be a solid option for the DH spot in 2011, but Milton Bradley’s time here should probably be finished after this season. I really like him, but he just doesn’t appear to be the same hitter that he has been in the past, and I don’t see any reason to believe that he’s going to magnificently return to form in 2011. Acquiring him for Carlos Silva was an extremely savvy move when Jack Z made it, but like most of the other risks he took, it just didn’t really work out.

Taylor: Much as I love both Russell and Milton, they just aren’t right for the 2011 team. I would rather see Greg Halman or Matt Mangini, guys who might be get playing time at DH. Russell and Milton are known commodities that in all likelihood will not help the Mariners beyond 2011. If Jack Zduriencik decides to go out an acquire a bunch of 3-4 WAR players and aims to win in 2011, then keeping Russell could make sense. However, that probably won’t happen.

Brett: I’d exercise Branyan’s option and bid Milton adieu. Which is sad, I really like him, but he’s made of glass and while Branyan’s offensive upside is lower, I think he’s a better bet to reach his upside.

7) Which minor leaguers other than the obvious three (Pineda, Ackley, and Smoak) deserve a chance at playing time in Seattle next season? (Ex: Matt Mangini, Greg Halman, Rich Polythress)

Griffin: I’d have to go with Josh Lueke. This bullpen, which has been a huge disappointment in 2010, looks a bit iffy heading into next season. Mark Lowe is gone, David Aardsma is likely to be gone, and Shawn Kelley’s health is a concern. Lueke has excellent stuff, and he could probably make a big impact on that relief corps right out of the gate.

Taylor: Honestly, despite the volatile nature of relievers, the minor leaguer I most want to see in Seattle next year is Josh Lueke. His strikeout numbers are very, very good in both AA and AAA, and he appears to have an extreme groundball tendency (as exemplified by a 50% to 23% GB-FB percentages in 17 AA innings with the Rangers organization, as well as a 45% to 17% split in 13 AAA innings). His tRA has been miniscule at every level of the minors. The Mariners bullpen could use someone like Josh Lueke, even more than they could use someone like Greg Halman or Matt Mangini. And, as luck would have it, they do have someone like Josh Lueke. His name is Josh Lueke.

Brett: I’d like to see Poythress and Mangini get a shot to play. Kyle Seager is interesting as well, if only as a utility player. Also, if Franklin hits in AA, I’d give him a 2011 September extended tryout at SS.

8. Is it time to give up on Brandon League?  Will the splitter ever return?

Griffin: Not at all. He may be too dumb to live up to his full potential, but he’s still decent even when he relies completely on his fastball. The Morrow trade looks even worse now than it did at the time, but League is still worth keeping around.

Taylor: Brandon League has posted a 4.41 tRA and 3.83 FIP over 65 innings this year in Seattle. Is this bad for a pitcher? No. Is it necessarily great for a reliever? No. I’d say keep League around, because his potential is through the roof.  Although one thing is for sure – if the splitter doesn’t return, neither does Brandon League’s effectiveness as a ML pitcher.

Brett: League has a 3.94 FIP not at least that’s what it was last time I checked. Even when he’s throwing stupid, he’s still effective. Definitely not giving up on him. When we hire a new manager and staff, we just have to hope the coaches recognize the power of that splitter and tell him to throw it more often. I expect big things from League in 2011.

This is part one of a two part piece in which the three writers of SoDo Mojo discuss some select issues that the team currently faces.

1) Franklin Gutierrez, after a scorching April and May, has been awful over the last three months of the 2010 season. Are his struggles something the M’s should be worried about, or is there reason to believe Guti will revert to his 2009 form?

Griffin: Guti’s season has been a really weird one. He was great offensively in April and May, but he’s been absolutely terrible every month since. I’m not ready to start panicking, because even with mediocre offense he’s still a valuable player, but the thing that really concerns me is the drop off in walks. He drew 28 between April and May, but he’s only drawn 16 in the 3 months since. Walks are one of the things you don’t usually see drop off when a hitter’s slumping, which is why the whole thing seems so strange. Back in May I was drooling at the thought of Guti with well above average offense, but we might just have to be happy with an extremely handsome 2-3 win center fielder.

Taylor: The lack of walks is odd, and I would think it has to do with Guti pressing to get a hit after doing so poorly. And he’s clearly got some pop as he showed last season with several deep home runs against the Padres, but when you’re not making contact, you’re not going to hit home runs. Sooner or later, Guti’s going to hit a monster home run or get a game-winning hit, and that’s going to bring back a little swagger and propel him back into his offensive groove. I’m not insinuating that Franklin’s struggles are purely mental, but it’s clear that he’s less comfortable at the plate than he was in April and May, as his pitches-seen-per-plate-appearance numbers have gone down considerably since.

It seems like Guti’s defensive numbers have dropped a little as well, but, honestly, UZR is a fickle thing. Single season values aren’t the greatest tools for serious player evaluation, which is why Guti’s UZR happens to be so much lower than last year’s. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up with something like a +18 value next season, which would bolster his WAR significantly.

All in all, I’m not worried. We picked up Guti for his defense, and that alone is worth 2 or so WAR. However, if Franklin continues to hit poorly over his first 150 plate appearances of the 2011 season, we may have a problem, but the likelihood of that occurring is slim-to-none.

Brett: No, I’m not worried about Guti. His OPS is around .700 and the difference between a .700 and .780 OPS like he was near last year can fluctuate from season to season. I know his BABIP isn’t that low or anything, but I can take an awesome CF that’s true talent offensively is between a .310 and .340 wOBA. I’m not worried and the M’s shouldn’t be either.

2) The Mariners starting rotation, as it currently stands, is nothing special. Should the M’s sign a free agent starter, and if so, who? (Ex: Javier Vasquez, Jorge de la Rosa)

Griffin: Since contention in 2011 is a long shot at best, the Mariners obviously shouldn’t be making too many win-now type moves. However, as it stands, the back of the rotation next year is going to be a bit of a mess, and the team might be best suited to look for a young, middle or back of the rotation starter to shore up things next year and beyond. Someone like Jorge de la Rosa could certainly be a solid, affordable option.

Taylor: There’s a reason I mentioned Javy Vasquez and Jorge de la Rosa in the prompt for this topic. I wouldn’t be averse to signing both guys if the price is right. De La Rosa posted a 4.00 FIP in 2008, a 3.89 FIP in 2009, and a 4.37 FIP so far in 2010. He’s a lefty whose skillset fits SafeCo pretty well, and his K/9 is always somewhere around 9. At 29, with an unluckily high ERA, the M’s could snag him for 2 years and 14 million, depending on the state of the market.

Javier Vasquez pitched for the Yankees in Yankee Stadium this season, so it goes without question that he has nowhere to go but up. Again, his skillset fits well with the M’s ballpark, and though he’s 35 years old and will be coming off a forgettable season (currently sporting a 5.45 tRA as a starter), he should be expected to bounce back next season. It’s possible that his inflated ERA will keep teams from taking a flyer on him, allowing the M’s to swoop in and sign him for something around 2 years, 14 million. However, again, the market for pitching is unpredictable.

Brett: Right now it looks like our 2011 rotation will be Felix, Vargas, Pineda, Fister, RRS. I’d swap Millwood in for Fister if we trade him in the off season or something, but I think the M’s will be a 75-85 win team in 2011…why waste a bunch of money on a free agent? Though I’d sign up Javy Vasquez for 2/18 or something if it were possible.

3) What should be done with Chone Figgins? Trade him? Move him back to third?

Griffin: My opinion on the Chone Figgins situation is this: if you can move him and get something worthwhile in return, pull the trigger. If not, move him back to third base, and I don’t just mean at the beginning of 2011. There’s no reason to keep him at second base any longer, and they might as well get him re acclimated to the position he’s going to be back at once Dustin Ackley arrives.

Taylor: Figgins should stay in Seattle. His walk rates haven’t dropped noticeably, and there’s no reason to assume that he’s done as a hitter. None. Sure, he’s not getting any better, but a .260/.360/.370 season coupled with the usual 40 or so stolen bases isn’t out of the question in 2011. Perhaps I’m being too optimistic, but, either way, Figgins is a better bet than any of our in-house options.

Brett: Move Figgins back to 3rd. Call Ackley up in September, make him the every day 2B so he’s ready to face MLB pitchers in 2011. From September 1 (or after AAA playoffs) until he retires, Ackley should be our 2B. I know it screws with his service time but I think he needs the time in the majors.

4) Josh Lueke was indicted on charges of raping a young woman. He’s also posted incredible K/9 numbers in AA and appears to be Major League-ready. Is there any reason to keep him off the MLB roster in 2011?

Griffin: Not that I can think of. He’s tearing it up in AAA, and he should be a big piece of that bullpen in 2011.

Taylor: This one seems tricky, but it isn’t. The M’s need to do something for good PR. At this point, the validity of the allegations isn’t what matters, because they’re out there anyway. The problem is that there are just too many people out there who would rather have a well-behaved player who sucks than an effective trouble-causing player for the M’s to be able to sweep this issue under the rug. People are stupid. Maybe have Lueke go out and read to sick children at a hospital or something. It’s that simple. Then Larry Stone can write an article about “Lueke’s Amazing Turnaround” and the general public will stop complaining.

When Lueke’s closing out games and striking out hordes of Major League hitters, I don’t think Mariners fans will be complaining about rape allegations.

Brett: Lueke should be in the bullpen for the foreseeable future. It’s insensitive of me but I don’t care what you do off the field as long as you perform on it. I also figure we can give him the benefit of the doubt since we don’t have all the info and something like 40% of rape accusations are made up.

While it may not look so good in retrospect, the Mariners had the right idea when they signed Jack Wilson to a 2 year, 10 million dollar deal this winter. The 2010 club option attached to his previous contract was too pricey, and re-signing him for a couple of years on a reasonable deal was really the team’s best chance to hold down shortstop. However, it’s easy to see now that it hasn’t really worked out for the Mariners. He’s missed roughly half of the season with injuries, while posting a -0.1 WAR and .262 wOBA in limited plate appearances.

As much as I like Jack Wilson, and I really do, there’s just no way you can count on him as your starting shortstop heading into the 2011 season. At age 32, the potential for a ~2 WAR player is still there, but his body just can’t keep up – he’s only played in 254 games since the beginning of 2008. Since it’s unlikely that the M’s will be able to move him, they’ll probably have to go with a similar shortstop situation next year, with him and someone like Josh Wilson splitting time, which is fine. It isn’t likely that they’ll be contending, anyway.

It is, however, probably time to accept the fact that Jack Wilson probably won’t be a part of the next Seattle Mariners team that contends. It’s no one’s fault – the logic was sound at the time, but it just turned out to be one more intelligent risk that didn’t work out. Fortunately, Nick Franklin still has an .846 OPS down in Clinton, and the 2012 free agent class sports multiple solid shortstops.

First off, I hereby apologize to our loyal readers for my month-long absence from blogging.  I was off doing music-related things in New York, and, as all of you sports fans know, that validates anything because ESPN loves New York.  Is this sarcasm?

With that out of the way, I’d like to present a few thoughts in bullet-point form.

• As a team, the Mariners are hitting .237.  This will improve next year when Jose Lopez is no longer a Mariner, Dustin Ackley is playing second, and Justin Smoak remembers that he is good at baseball.  Already this team looks a whole lot better as soon as 2010 is over.
• Michael Saunders is hitting .222/.297/.401 with 8 homers and a positive UZR value.  For reference, this is significantly better than 2010 Ken Griffey, Jr.  Saunders is continuing to progress, and I’m really not worried about his development just yet.  But keep this in mind: the M’s do have another left-field option in Greg Halman, should Saunders turn out a complete bust (which is very unlikely).
• The Mariners have hit 108 less home runs than the Toronto Blue Jays.  The M’s are also last in the league in doubles and second-to-last in three-baggers.
• On a positive note, the M’s are fifth-best in the league at avoiding double plays.  Oh wait, you can’t hit into a double play if there isn’t a runner on first.  So I guess this bullet point isn’t very positive at all.

A fact: Jack Zduriencik needs to pull off a string of excellent deals to put the M’s in position to contend in 2011.  Another fact: Doing so will be mighty difficult.  It is not my intent to be a needless pessimist in this post.  However, reality is reality, and the M’s are probably looking at another mediocre season – albeit one with more highlights than this one.

As I’ve become more baseball-educated over the last year or so, I’ve had to deal with finding out a lot of disturbing things. Like that calling someone a “clutch hitter” is just a meaningless cliche, or that ERA is not in fact the be all end all stat of quantifying pitching performance. In a way, I feel like learning more about the game has taken away my innocence, and nothing I’ve learned is a better example of that than learning that Lou Piniella may not have been such a great manager. That seems to be the general consensus in the sabermetric Mariner community, and while I’m not denying that it might be true, it came as a bit of a shock to me. After all, I grew up watching sweet Lou throw bases and kick dirt on umpires. I was a naive fan, and he was the manager of the best baseball teams this city has ever seen. Not only that, but the whole city seemed to love him – how could I not view him as a good manager?

Now, I hear tales of poor bullpen management and bias towards veteran players, and I have to admit, it’s painful. It doesn’t change my feelings toward him, though. I’ll always have fond memories of his tenure in Seattle, and the game of baseball is certainly going to miss his familiar face. So goodbye Lou, and thanks for the ride.

With the Mariners being so boring lately, my mind has wandered to more general baseball thoughts. There are a few things I’ve been pondering, and I figure I’ll share some of them with you. Here’s the first one.

Everyone knows Yuniesky Betancourt is having another terrible offensive season, posting a meager .267/.288/.418 line for a .305 wOBA. It’s interesting, then, to see that Kevin Kouzmanoff, who seemingly has a reputation as at least a decent hitter, is putting up a shockingly similar .260/.295/.391 for a .299 wOBA. On defense, Kouzmanoff makes up for it by being a stellar defensive player, but as hitters, they reach their results in similar ways.

Kouzmanoff has a career 4.6% BB rate, which is not as bad as Betancourt’s laugh-inducing 3.2% rate, but neither of them seem to have any idea how to navigate the strike zone. They also have nearly identical BABIP’s, with Kouzmanoff’s .292 mark besting Yuni’s .287 by a measly five points. They even both have line drive percentages just tenths of a percent away from 19%. The main difference is contact, where Kouzmanoff makes contact in 11% less of his plate appearances than Betancourt, which lends to his higher strikeout rate. Still, the slight difference in walks gives Kouzmanoff a nearly identical slash line and wOBA.

While Kevin Kouzmanoff is certainly a better player than Yuniesky Betancourt, as he is one of the better defensive third basemen in the league. However, he’s really not much better of a hitter than Yuniesky Betancourt, and he takes a strikingly similar path to reach those results. Given that, I see no reason why Kevin Kouzmanoff has a greater reputation as a hitter.

Last night was the deadline for teams to sign 2010 draft picks, and the Mariners were able to ink a couple more of their top picks. The two most notable were infielder Marcus Littlewood and LHP Jordan Shipers. For info on Littlewood, take a look here and here. As for Shipers, he’s a 5′10 lefty with a decent fastball that can touch the low 90’s, as well as both an average change and curve. He was a 16th round pick, and he signed for significantly over-slot at $800,000.

The two most disappointing misses for the M’s on signing day were RHP Ryne Stanek and LHP James Paxton. Remember, they had already agreed to a deal with supplemental first rounder Taijuan Walker well before the deadline.