Tarik Skubal and the 2026 Mariners would have been wasted on each other

So there you have it, it's official -- the Mariners have secured their first losing season since 2020, albeit that was a shortened COVID-impacted campaign of just 60 games. Irrespective, the 82 losses are their most since 2019 and based on current projections, they could finish with their second-most losses since 2013. With that wonderful benefit of hindsight, it now seems safe to proclaim they did the right thing in not pursuing Tarik Skubal ahead of the trade deadline.

To be clear, we total understand why there were suggestions from the likes of ESPN's Jeff Passan, that the Mariners should make a play for Skubal prior to the Aug. 3 deadline. He was perceived by many as the type of generational talent who could lift a rotation and by extension an entire team, even if he was going to effectively just be a two-month (or hopefully three) rental. And when the Dodgers acquired him, their return package for the Tigers had critics believing the M's missed the boat.

However, as asinine as it might initially seem to say this, we don't believe Skubal would have saved the Mariners' bacon this season. Sure they could have used the 2.52 ERA and 1.040 WHIP he's produced over eight starts for the Dodgers, but it still likely wouldn't have been enough for an M's team which has been in freefall since the last time they had a winning record. At that time in late-July they were 51-50 following a series-opening win versus the Reds, but have since gone a disappointing 19-32.

Tarik Skubal just wouldn't have been able to do enough to save the Mariners from themselves

Even if you transfer the three wins Skubal has recorded with the Dodgers over to Seattle, the Mariners would still be just 73-79 and sitting four losses back of the Astros in the division as well as the final AL wild card spot, with just 10 games remaining. Some may want to contend you could also add the three games the Dodgers won even when he wasn't tagged with the W, but they were all tense one-run games. Do you really believe an M's bullpen which ranks dead last in team ERA since the beginning of August, would have come through for the team?

In that respect, the rotation hasn't been much better, ranking 24th in team ERA over the same time period. Throw in an offense which is third-worst in runs scored per game and last in Fielding Run Value, and it all would have just been too much for Skubal to overcome, regardless of being the two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner. Despite being capable of a galvanzing impact similar to Josh Naylor last season, even this alone would have been compromised to an extent by only pitching once every five days.

The other reason trading for Skubal would have been a pure waste is the acquisition cost. As much as people believe the Dodgers got a favorable deal with the Tigers to get the southpaw, they still had to give up two top-100 prospects. Clearly the M's could have blown the Dodgers out of the water with a superior return package, but you would probably be looking at the likes of Lazaro Montes and Felnin Celesten, which even at the time would have felt like a gut punch of sorts, never mind now.

Even for Skubal himself, a trade to Seattle would have been a waste, if for no other reason than he wouldn't have gotten a chance to pad his free agent value in the playoffs. Look, we get it that plenty of Mariners fans wish the front office would be more adventurous and take risks like other teams such as the Dodgers, and Yankees. However, as bad as this season has been -- and it has been truly awful -- it would have been worse with such a big swing and miss.

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