Mariners' tragic number is down to single digits with playoff hopes on life support

Frustrating. Devastating. Unfathomable. Inexcusable. It's becoming tougher to come up with new ways to describe this Mariners season without resorting to profanities. However, let's also throw in tragic, which is now more apt than ever, as the M's find themselves fighting against an ever-dwindling number of games.

It's around this time of the regular season when contending teams find themselves looking eagerly at their magic number, which is the combined number of wins and rival losses needed to clinch a playoff spot. This was a situation the Mariners expected to find themselves in, after entering this season as one of the favorites to make the World Series. Instead, they are staring down the barrel of a gun, facing a tragic number of 8.

As per Chris Landers of FanSided: "A tragic number is the combined number of leader wins and chaser losses that would mathematically eliminate the chaser from playoff consideration." Another way to put it is that four Mariners losses and four Astros wins would seal the deal. Ahead of Monday morning, the M's find themselves 5.0 games back of their hated division rivals at the AL West summit, with just 12 left to play.

In theory, the Mariners are in a favorable situation with 10 games to play versus the Angels and Rockies, who have the two worst records in the majors. In addition, the other two games are at home to the Astros, who the M's are 9-2 against this season. However, as favorable as these statistics might sound, they don't entirely stand up to scrutiny in the real world.

It doesn't matter how bad the opponent is, if you're also a bad team like the Mariners

That real world tells us that the Mariners themselves are just not a good team, ranking 28th in scoring, 19th in ERA and dead last in Fielding Run Value. It all adds up to 70-80 record which has already secured their most losses since 2019. Why should we believe at this point, that the M's are going to find a way to perform the miracle to end all miracles?

As poor as the Angels and Rockies undoubtedly are, the Mariners have already shown there are no guarantees of favorable outcomes versus supposedly inferior opponents. We are of course referring to the two recent series versus the Athletics, with the M's only managing two wins in seven games against a team with the third-worst record in the majors.

People can claim bad luck all they want after two walk-off losses to the A's over the weekend, but good teams don't allow opponents to even be in with a chance to win late on, especially not at this stage of the season. At the same time, those two walk-off losses are even more galling, when you consider the Astros were swept over the weekend by the Rays.

In this respect, it's amazing to think how differently this whole situation would be perceived, if the Mariners were just 3.0 games back instead, even allowing for what would still be a dire 72-78 record. Really though, this just alludes to how poor the AL West is, doubling as a painful reminder of the opportunity the M's are screwing up this season. Yes, there's still a chance even now... but in reality, the magic has been replaced by a tragic scenario.

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