Mariners could make a mockery of ESPN's best Tarik Skubal trade proposals

Tarik Skubal is officially set to return to the Detroit Tigers on Saturday, which might as well be the "On your marks!" for his trade sweepstakes. The Seattle Mariners don't figure to be involved, but there's perhaps no better evidence that they could than the piece ESPN ran earlier this week.

Writers pitched trades for the back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner, and Kiley McDaniel played the role of the Tigers' GM and ranked them from worst to best. This was the winning bid from Jeff Passan:

• Los Angeles Dodgers get: LHP Tarik Skubal
• Detroit Tigers get: RHP Emmet Sheehan, OF Zyhir Hope and SS Aidan West

Ha. Good one. Now show us the real best offer the Dodgers can make for Skubal.

Except, apparently this is it. It consists of a controllable but merely OK-ish major league starter, alongside a legitimate prospect (MLB Pipeline has Hope as the league's No. 17 talent) but then a fourth-rounder from 2025 who has yet to advance beyond the Arizona Complex League.

Sheesh. And here we were thinking the Mariners would have to give up Ryan Sloan and Lazaro Montes and Mason Peters in a trade for Skubal. Either we overestimated his value in between elbow surgery and free agency, or ESPN is badly underestimating it.

Mariners can play by ESPN's rules and still offer the best package for Tarik Skubal

For what it's worth, the Passan bid for Skubal is rejected by Baseball Trade Values' model. It has Skubal's surplus value at $28.7 million, compared to $62.1 million for the Sheehan-Hope-West trio.

However, in no way, shape or form is the math gonna math if the Tigers do trade Skubal. It'll only be for a dramatic overpay, so the only question is what kind of overpay they prefer. And if they do want an established MLB starter alongside a pair of prospects, very well. We can play that game:

• Seattle Mariners get: LHP Tarik Skubal
• Detroit Tigers get: RHP Emerson Hancock, OF Lazaro Montes, INF Felnin Celesten

It's a similar overpay by Baseball Trade Values' reckoning at $57.2 million for the Mariners' package. But that doesn't capture how Hancock is A) better and B) more controllable than Sheehan. Otherwise, Montes is MLB Pipeline's No. 27 prospect and Celestin is a new entry in the top 100 at No. 98.

Assuming Hancock is the headliner either way, this is one of many workable packages Seattle could offer Detroit for Skubal. Maybe it's Sloan instead of Montes, in which case it's Jonny Farmelo or Luke Stevenson as the third player. Or, maybe the Mariners go all-in and tell the Tigers to pick two of Sloan, Montes and Michael Arroyo. Or, screw it, put Kade Anderson on the table and dare them to say no.

Granted, that ESPN didn't bother pondering these and other scenarios for the Mariners is not surprising. The notion of the Mariners trading for Skubal is alluring, but it has always been short of convincing. He's a nice-to-have, whereas there are must-haves elsewhere on the roster.

Still, that clearly doesn't mean we're about to stop thinking about it. And if we had to guess, we're not alone there.

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