$115M free agent Mariners gave up on too soon could come back to haunt them

When it comes to "What if?" scenarios in Mariners history, the Robbie Ray tenure in Seattle is definitely worthy of being included. There are plenty who believe the M's gave up on the lefty too quickly, something which has only been reinforced by how he's pitched in San Francisco. And now comes the potential for this mistake to be shoved further down their throats.

The Athletic's Jim Bowden shared a list of the top starting pitchers who are candidates to be traded by the Aug. 3 deadline. And included on the list is Ray, who Bowden predicts could actually be the first starter moved if the Giants don't improve dramatically. What will have Mariners fans really concerned is a lot of AL teams could use some quality starting pitching, meaning the increased prospect of the M's facing the 2021 Cy Young winner come crunch time in the race for playoff spots.

If you go back, there was plenty of understandable excitement when the Mariners signed Ray to a five-year, $115 contract following his aforementioned Cy Young Award in Toronto. However, he was unable to quite recapture that magic during an inconsistent 2022 season in Seattle. This was punctuated by the devastating three-run walkoff homer he gave up to Yordan Alvarez, in Game 1 of the ALDS versus the Astros.

Robbie Ray really could have helped the Mariners, whether it be previously or right now

The thing is, the optics made things seem worse than they really were, with expectations verging on unreasonable following a career year. A dip from pitching at a Cy Young level was always going to a distinct possibility. And, for what it's worth, his 3.71 ERA during that 2022 season would actually be third-lowest in the Mariners rotation as of right now, ahead of both Bryan Woo and Logan Gilbert.

In any event, Ray had an outstanding spring training the following year, but unfortunately fate had different plans as he suffered a season-ending torn flexor tendon in his first start of the 2023 season. Then came the Mariners' decision to trade him in early January 2024, which shocked a lot of people. It was a move predicated on salary relief, and all they got in return was Anthony DeSclafani with an older, less effective version of Mitch Haniger.

Following Ray's return from his Tommy John surgery and after shaking off the rust, the Giants have gotten the version of him which Mariners fans were hoping to see in Seattle. Last season he made 32 starts and earned his second All-Star selection, and this year he's pitching even better. He's currently projected to produce a 2.76 ERA, which would be the lowest of his Major League career.

At the same time, the Giants' sense of urgency to potentially trade Ray will only be heightened by the fact he did fade towards the end of last season and is a pending free agent. Still, the combination of his durability, experience and ability make him an enticing prospect to provide a positive short-term impact for any number of contending teams in the AL. Which could in turn create the nightmare scenario of the 2021 strikeout leader helping decide the M's playoff fate.

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