Mariners giving up on Robbie Ray has become an all-time blunder by Jerry Dipoto

The 2021 season was a great one for Robbie Ray. In his first and only full year with the Toronto Blue Jays, he led all AL pitchers in ERA (2.84), innings pitched (193.1), strikeouts (248), ERA+ (157), WHIP (1.045), and rWAR (6.9). For his efforts, he was nearly unanimously named the AL Cy Young Award winner and headed into free agency with his stock at an all-time high.

That's what made it all the more surprising when the Seattle Mariners were the ones to win his services with an offer of $115 million over five years.

Despite the relatively large financial commitment, his tenure with Seattle was forgettable (that is,outside of one tragic moment). He pitched to a 3.71 ERA over 189 innings in his first season with the team, a respectable figure but far from the ace status he earned the year prior. The following year would be even worse, as he would strain his flexor tendon in his very first start of the year, necessitating Tommy John surgery.

The Giants are actually getting the Robbie Ray the Mariners wanted

With three years and nearly $75 million left to pay on his contract, the Mariners traded Ray to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani in January of 2024. At the time, it seemed like a fair swap of reclamation projects for both organizations. But while neither Haniger nor DeSclafani ended up bouncing back with Seattle, the same can't be said about Ray in San Francisco.

This year, the lefty is back to full health and is off to a scorching start. Across his first 11 starts, he has posted a 2.56 ERA over 63.1 innings and leads all MLB starters in wins (seven). His ability to keep the ball within the park paired with his top-quartile strikeout rate of 27.0 percent give him a FIP of 3.20, even better than the FIP he had during his 2021 Cy Young campaign.

Given the success he has had in 2025, is it possible that the Mariners made a mistake in letting him go? After all, the team hasn't had a left-handed starter throw meaningful innings since he and fellow southpaw Marco Gonzales left the organization. Could he have been the solution to the current woes facing what used to be the most dominant rotation in baseball?

Potentially, but it doesn't mean the organization made a bad move at the time. By moving his contract, the organization freed up significant payroll as well as roster spots that paved the way for young talent to rise to new heights.

Furthermore, there are definitely signs of regression that could indicate that after a full season, his final results may not be worth the money he would've been owed. His velocity, whiff, and strikeout rates have taken steps back since his peak, especially concerning indicators for someone who throws his fastball more than 50 percent of the time.

Still, it's frustrating to see former Mariners rediscover success in new places, especially when they failed to live up the hype while in Seattle. We've seen it with players like Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez, and now Robbie Ray.

Of course, it's always good to see major leaguers get their careers back on track, especially after major injuries, but the question of "What if?" may be a lingering one for Mariners fans watching them succeed with their new squads.