Unexpected Tyler Stephenson prediction raises a budget question for Mariners

Of all the things which could have gone wrong for the Mariners in 2026, Cal Raleigh's disastrous campaign arguably topped the list. After four seasons of relying heavily on him, this year highlighted the need for quality cover at the catcher position. This has led to a surprise prediction that the M's will sign Tyler Stephenson to back up Raleigh, although making this into a reality isn't even close to being straightforward.

No one denies how spoiled the Mariners and their fans were between 2022-25, as Raleigh put together record-breaking stats at the catcher position. However, the 2026 season served as a warning that the Mariners cannot continue depending on him to play every day or consistently keep producing with his bat, especially with him turning 30 later on this month. Hence the need for quality cover, which brings us to Stephenson.

With all due respect to Jhonny Pereda, who provided a solid bat when given the opportunity this year, he isn't viewed as the ideal answer to be the main backup at catcher moving forward. Which brings us to MLB Trade Rumors' top 50 free agents predictions. More specifically Darragh McDonald, who has Stephenson signing in Seattle ahead of the 2027 season (whenever that begins).

The long-time Cincinnati Red does make for an intriguing option in some respects, with him viewed as one of the better hitting catchers in the game. And certainly a career .257 batting average, .757 OPS and 105 wRC+ is a stat line which could help the Mariners. He had good chase and hard-hit rates this year specifically, while having a track record of success versus lefties as evidenced by hitting .262 with a .785 OPS and 111 wRC+ since entering the majors in 2020.

How much do the Mariners value improving the catcher depth, both figuratively AND literally?

However, any excitement surrounding Stephenson immediately becomes compromised by his reputation as a bad catcher. Yes, he does have a decent career 20.2% caught-stealing rate and this season he ranked in the 97th percentile for Blocks Above Avg. However, this year he also allowed more stolen bases than any other catcher (94), while MLB Trade Rumors added the damning evidence that Statcast rates him as the game’s worst framer, in the aggregate, since the start of the 2024 campaign.

The other aspect to consider is the predicted financial commitment put forward by McDonald for Stephenson, of two years and $15 million. Even allowing for the prediction being just that, someone like Gary Sánchez would arguably by more enticing, with the context of him having had a one-year, $8.5 million option declined by the World Series champion Brewers. Both Zachary Rymer and Jason Wang have already sung the praises of Sánchez, with Wang noting his 112 OPS+ as his best since 2019 while also having one of the highest walk-rates in baseball at 16.7%.

Focusing back in on the potential financial commitment aspect, keep in mind that any Pereda upgrade can't eat up too much of the budget. Ideally the Mariners want to reel in a big fish during this offseason, with someone such as Seiya Suzuki being a prime candidate. And it's going to take a lot to convince him that the bait tastes better in Seattle, with MLB Trade Rumors predicting a deal of four years and $105 million.

As of right now, there's only a $21 million gap between what the Mariners spent in 2026 and are projected to fork out in 2027. A potential salary floor not withstanding, which has been mentioned as a possibility by Evan Drellich of The Athletic. Ultimately, if push comes to shove -- financially speaking -- we suspect the Mariners will give Pereda another chance to prove himself next year, with him not becoming arbitration-eligible until 2029.

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