Key vote for Mariners in Seiya Suzuki free agent race has Randy Arozarena twists

MLB Trade Rumors' predictions for the 2026-27 free agent market are out, and they project Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki to get basically the same contract. Yet only one of the publication's three panelists expects the Seattle Mariners to end up with either player, and it's… Suzuki?

That's what Anthony Franco thinks, and it's the most notable vote of confidence for the Mariners in the entire exercise. It's also interesting, given that the Mariners could hypothetically re-sign Arozarena for less:

• Seiya Suzuki projection: 4 years, $105 million
• Randy Arozarena projection: 4 years, $100 million

This is a bit of a rug pull. Between Suzuki and Arozarena, it's Suzuki who we had figured to earn less and Arozarena we had figured would earn more. Though they're both coming off their age-31 season, Suzuki is 194 days older and generally less established as a star.

The projection for Arozarena nonetheless reflects very real concerns, specifically in that he's a bad defender with declining bat speed. And where the Mariners are concerned, there might not be an either/or decision to be made here. Indications are that Arozarena wants to play on the East Coast, which is notably where the Mariners are not.

Even if the Mariners could bring Arozarena back, they have at least one good reason to prefer Suzuki anyway. Both he and Arozarena will hit the open market after rejecting qualifying offers, in which case they'd be tied to draft pick compensation. If the Mariners sign Suzuki, they'll lose their third-highest selection in the 2027 draft. But if Arozarena signs elsewhere for over $50 million, the Mariners would gain a selection after the first round.

This is assuming that the current qualifying offer protocols survive to the next CBA. But if they do, that would be a fair trade and a net positive for the Mariners from a value standpoint.

Mariners also have to consider whether Seiya Suzuki is simply a better player than Randy Arozarena

If it's a question of who is the more valuable player, Arozarena has 17.2 rWAR for his last five seasons compared to 16.2 rWAR for Suzuki, who has only been in the majors since 2022. So, there's that.

However, that value gap is partially owed to Arozarena's baserunning edge, and that's the kind of thing you worry about when a player starts getting into his 30s. And whereas his offense comes with a bat speed red flag, Suzuki has actually increased his own bat speed since 2023. In this four-season window, he has a 131 OPS+ to Arozarena's 124 OPS+.

That should speak to Mariners, and so should the likelihood of Suzuki being a welcome addition to their outfield defense. His improvement as a right fielder was one of the bigger surprises of the Chicago Cubs' season, and it was legit. He learned to get better jumps off the bat, allowing him to become a good fly ball catcher in addition to a guy with a dangerous arm.

Signing Suzuki could therefore be a major step in the right direction for the project of improving the defense in 2027. It would also give the Mariners options for how to fill Arozarena's shoes in left field. It could be Brendan Donovan's new home. Or, it could go to Lazaro Montes or Michael Arroyo (once the latter is healthy, of course).

It's important to keep expectations nice and tempered. For Suzuki to get over any fear he might have of T-Mobile Park, the Mariners might have to go above even MLB Trade Rumors' projection. And since new manager Jason Kanzler was working on the player development side with the Cubs, there's no guarantee that his presence will make any kind of difference should the Mariners pursue Suzuki.

Conceptually, though, it's a good idea. Jerry Dipoto should start from there and see what happens.

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