Predicting the next Mariners extension after Cal Raleigh bombshell

If you haven't heard yet, Cal Raleigh received a well-deserved extension from the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday. While it's not as big (nor as complex) as Julio Rodríguez's contract, it signals some urgency from the front office to retain what they believe to be the core of the team.

The Houston Astros followed a similar structure, building a lasting roster around homegrown talents like Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. With two of the biggest names on the team now locked down for the rest of the decade, who are some other players the Mariners should want to stick around?

Before we start naming names, it's important to acknowledge why extensions are beneficial for both teams and players. For the player, it saves them the hassle of navigating free agency as well as arbitration. It also minimizes the risk of a regression close to or during their walk year and gives them a significant amount of guaranteed money.

For teams, it allows them to get in while the player's stock is relatively low. If a superstar hits a new peak right before they hit the open market, their asking price could skyrocket outside of the budget. Juan Soto was seen as crazy for denying a massive extension from the Washington Nationals in 2022, but then he signed a record-breaking deal for nearly twice as much money just two years later.

Which Mariners are extension candidates?

The most obvious place to start would be the rotation, at the head of which sits Logan Gilbert.

In a conversation with Seattle Sports, he recently expressed interest in staying a Mariner although he added that it "has to be the right situation for sure." He's due to hit free agency after 2027 and already received a $7.63 million salary to avoid arbitration for 2025. If he has another outstanding year, his market value will increase rapidly.

However, as great as it would be to have Gilbert around for the foreseeable future, the Mariners have such a wealth of pitching talent that he may actually be more valuable as a trade asset. With four other outstanding arms already in the rotation, one has to wonder how much the organization values him in particular.

In addition to the surplus of arms, the pervasiveness of pitcher injuries in today's MLB would likely make an organization as fiscally conservative as the Mariners second-guess a contract longer than a few years, even for someone as seemingly durable as Gilbert. The maximum price Seattle would be willing to pay is likely smaller than what he wants and what other teams would offer in free agency.

So if it won't be a pitcher, what about the lineup?

Seattle seems far less risk-averse when it comes to position players, notably offering J-Rod a contract before he even played a full season in the majors. The Mariners haven't really been known for their offense as of late, but it did pick up quite a bit towards the end of last year thanks to a few upgrades acquired via trade.

The two names with the most potential seem to be Victor Robles and Randy Arozarena, both of whom posted strong numbers in their partial seasons with the squad.

Arozarena will be a free agent after 2026 but is already 30 years old, limiting the amount of athletic prime he has left. He'll be 32 years old by the time he gets to choose his next destination, giving him a similar profile to Teoscar Hernández, who signed a relatively short three-year deal with the Dodgers this offseason. Thus, it makes more sense for Seattle to simply ride out the rest of his team control and let him walk or trade him away.

Robles, on the other hand, is a few weeks younger than Raleigh. He's already on an immensely team-friendly contract and will be owed a little less than $10 million in total over the next two years per his most recent extension with Seattle. If he's as good as he was last year for the remainder of this current deal, it seems possible that another extension could provide more overall value than exercising his $9 million team option in 2027 and letting him walk in free agency.

Otherwise, the next big Mariners extension could be saved for a player yet to make his debut. With the quality of the team's farm system, who's to say what sort of numbers Cole Young, Colt Emerson, or Lazaro Montes could end up with when they finally get called up?

If it's not going to one of the three aforementioned big league players, then the front office is likely saving their cash for a young talent they can get behind with the same conviction they had for Rodríguez. When's the next time the club will see a generational talent like that? Only time will tell.