How Victor Robles can live up to his contract extension with the Mariners in 2025

In a recent interview with Seattle radio hosts Dave Wyman and Bob Shelton, CBS MLB Writer Matt Snyder had some thoughts on whether Victor Robles could repeat his accomplishments from 2024. Snyder mentioned his prospect pedigree but we wanted to take a deeper look in what contributed to his success last year and whether those factors would still be around for the remainder of his extended contract.

Robles has been a notable name in the world of baseball for quite some time. He signed with the Nationals as an international free agent all the way back in 2013, and by 2017 he was the top prospect in Washington's system and the fifth-best in baseball. This earned him a call-up to the big leagues, and after his 2019 season where he accumulated 4.4 rWAR it seemed the sky was the limit for the young outfielder.

Unfortunately, he hit a snag in 2020. Even though he had an outstanding campaign just a year prior that saw him place sixth in Rookie of the Year voting, his major-league OPS+ was still just 94 over his 710 plate appearances. For the next several years, he would split time between the minors and majors, struggling to rediscover what had originally made him great. He was ultimately designated for assignment in early May of last year and released on June 1.

Because of his inconsistent on-field numbers, no one thought much of the signing at first. However, he was one of the very few hitters who seemed to find more success at T-Mobile Park. Over his 262 plate appearances with the team, he slashed .328/.393/.467 with four home runs, 20 doubles, and 30 stolen bases. In what was ultimately half of a regular season, he became the fifth-most valuable player on the Mariners with an rWAR of 3.1 and led the team in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS+ (155). Now that he has signed an extension, what can fans expect from him in 2025?

He hasn't actually played a full season since 2022, during which had a .584 OPS over 407 plate appearances. At that time, he struggled immensely with hitting the ball for power, slugging just .311 and placing in the bottom percentile for xwOBA (.244), xSLG (.280), average exit velocity (84.6 mph), and hard-hit rate (23.8%). His lack of pop has been a problem for quite some time now, but he seems to have adapted to his weaknesses as of late. He has refined his approach to be more aggressive in the zone with an increased focus on making contact rather than looking for the perfect home run pitch.

Overall, his chase and whiff rates haven't changed much, but by swinging more often and maintaining the same rate of contact, he's getting more value from each strike.

However, there are some factors that suggest last season was more of a fluke than the turning of a new offensive leaf for him. First and foremost, his expected stats (xBA and xSLG) were notably lower than his actual numbers. Second, his BABIP of .388 was a little too high for it to be deemed sustainable. Looking at these statistics allow fans to gauge whether his success was more due to luck than actual improvements, but they're incomplete and don't tell the whole story. Ultimately, we'll have to get a full season of 500+ plate appearances to really know what he's capable of at the plate.

Defense has always been a major strength of Robles. In the two seasons with the Nationals that he had an rWAR above 1.0, his OPS+ was never above 91. How's that possible? It's because in 2019, he had 25 Defensive Runs Saved and in 2022 he had 12. He wasn't nearly as prolific while playing outfield for the Mariners, but he still managed four DRS over 616 innings and has top-decile arm strength, so there shouldn't be any concerns about his run prevention abilities.

The organization has been vocal about their trust in the abilities of the current team and truly believes that the reintroduction of Edgar Martínez to the coaching staff will help the players reach their maximum potential. It has been a big reason the payroll hasn't increased as much as fans may have hoped, but that doesn't mean there isn't already incredible talent on the roster.