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Reason #1 he won't win: The AL West competition
I think this could be the biggest thing going against Julio Rodriguez in a race for the MVP in 2024. Even though Ohtani left for the National League, there are still some darn good players in the American League. I mentioned them in the intro, but it's worth taking a look back at who he is likely going up against.
Aaron Judge
Juan Soto
Yordan Alvarez
Corey Seager
Marcus Semien
Jose Ramirez
Bobby Witt Jr
Kyle Tucker
Mike Trout
Adley Rutschman
Gunnar Henderson
With the likes of Acuna, Freeman, Betts, Ohtani, and Harper in the National League, maybe the top of the list isn't as instantly intimidating, but it is still a lot of proven players that scare the crap out of pitchers and have proven that they are MVP-worthy.
A handful of those names have teammates that are going to be in the conversation as well, and they could help drive up eachothers numbers. It's easier to score runs when you have someone like Seager, Rutschman, Alvarez, or Judge batting behind you. Add in the fact that these teams are all projected to finish well, and you could be looking at an MVP selection as we've seen many times in years past... the best player on the team with the best record, instead of the best player in the league.