3 Reasons Mariners' Julio Rodriguez will win MVP in 2024... and 2 reasons he won't

Could this be the year of Julio Rodriguez? It's never going to be a wild proclamation to make that claim. He's one of the most talented players in baseball and looks like a threat to hit 300 with 40/40 HR/SB at some point in the next couple of years. He was a top ten to start the season in 2023 in MVP odds and ended up finishing 4th overall behind only Ohtani, Seager, and Semien.

To start 2024, Julio is 5th in odds in most places that you look. He is behind Judge & Soto, Alvarez, and Seager. He's ahead of Rutschman & Henderson, Tucker, Trout, and Bobby Witt Jr. That seems like a fair spot for him to sit heading into the season. You know that there is going to be a ton of love for Judge and Soto, and rightfully so. Judge had one of the best offensive seasons ever when he won MVP, and Soto is one of the most talented hitters to ever step to the plate.

Even looking lower, there is some immense talent. The youth in Baltimore, another Houston guy, the uber-talented Bobby Witt Jr, and then some guy with a fish name who plays in California.

Could this be Julio's year? Ohtani is gone, and the Angels just aren't as good, although that hasn't stopped Mike Trout from haunting opposing pitchers' nightmares even if he is surrounded by AAA players. Let's start off with why he may not win, and finish with the reasons why he will.

Reason #2 he won't win: Consistency

This is a close second for me, and it needs to be mentioned. Julio has struggled with consistency so far in his young career, and I think it rubs people the wrong way sometimes. To them, I want to send a reminder that the kid just turned 23, and completed his age 21 and 22 seasons over the past two years.

Also, it's worth taking a look at how his splits ACTUALLY look instead of just blindly believing a narrative.

He was fairly consistent in 2022, suffering from a slow start before heating up. 2023 was a different story and didn't look nearly as good from a consistency standpoint. Julio can heat up with the best of them, evidenced by his historic August. Is the consistency a problem? A season like 2023 might accentuate the argument, especially with a slow start paired with a slow finish.

If Julio has a handful of "bad" months, from the standpoint of an MVP candidate, that go hand-in-hand with the Mariners not performing well, then I think it's going to be a mark against him winning the award.

Reason #1 he will win: The HR/Speed combo

Let's get excited and positive again. The HR/speed combo that Julio possesses is special, and is exhibited by only a few people in baseball. In 2023, he became just the 44th player in the history of baseball to notch a 30/30 season. That shows just how incredibly talented he is when we just saw how inconsistent he was in 2023. The fact he hit so many bombs and still stole that many bases is scary.

So, what happens if he ends up having a "consistent" year? How high up could he go? Could we be looking at a 40/40 season? Julio went 32/37 HR/SB last year, and he's only getting more comfortable and stronger. I don't think it's a wild prediction to think he teases a 40/40 season in the near future.

While the 30/30 club has 40+ members, the 40/40 club (Not the Jay-Z one) is much, much, MUCH more exclusive club. In fact, there are only 5 members of the club in total.

Jose Canseco (1988) - 42/40
Barry Bonds (1996) - 42/40
Alex Rodriguez (1998) - 42/46
Alfonso Soriano (2006) - 46/41
Ronald Acuna (2023) - 41/73

If I was a gambling man, I think I would land on the side of Julio joining that club in the next 3 years. His talent and speed just seem like a match made in heaven for that club, and accolades like that hold a firm place in voter's minds as they make their selections.

Reason #2 he will win: Big name pairs stealing each other's votes

I mentioned this earlier, but I think that the majority of this actually falls in Julio's favor. You'll see that when there are two teammates who are both good candidates, that they can sometimes "steal" votes from eachother. It's not always the case, but in 2024 I think it could play to Julio's favor. Recall that list from earlier in the article, and you'll see that there are four pairs of teammates on there, with only Bobby Witt Jr, Jose Ramirez, and Mike Trout not having MVP candidate teammates.

The reason it could help, I think, would be that when it comes time to vote, there would be a legitimate argument that those teammates had someone to prop them up and propel their numbers, helping to build eachother up. For someone like Julio, it would be that he did it without someone like that.

Judge will steal from Soto. Alvarez from Tucker. Rutschman from Henderson, Semien from Seager, and even Bichette from Vlad Jr. Or vice versa. I don't think anyone on the Mariners "steals" votes from Julio, unless Garver or Raleigh somehow play 140+ games and hit .260 with 40 HR, or JP finds another level still and hits .295 with 25 HR. Or Haniger turns on the way back machine and replicates his 2018 season. I just don't see it though and think that helps Julio's chances.

Reason #3 he will win: He's only getting better

This is the most important point of the entire article, I believe. Julio Rodriguez is only 23 years old. There are people his age coming out of college who still don't know what they are going to do with their lives, and meanwhile, Julio Rodriguez is sitting there as one of the best baseball players on the planet already.

A common thought is that baseball players don't reach their prime until their age 26-29 seasons. Julio is 3 seasons away from entering that first prime year. He's three years behind Acuna in age. Julio is only getting more comfortable at the plate. He's getting better at recognizing pitches. He's starting to understand the game more, and being able to do it at an early age due to the experience he gained as a rookie (ROY, no less) at age 21.

It's fair to argue that Julio is a generational talent, and that he is already at his peak. That he was able to arrive there early due to his talent. However, you could adjust that to say he is a generational talent who is only going to get better as he reaches his prime years. Does Julio become a consistent .300 hitter? Does he start flirting with 40/40 every year? As the speed declines, does the power increase? Are we going to see a wild SB season like Acuna just had?

They are all reasonable and realistic questions, and ones that Julio could achieve. He was, to be blunt/negative about it "inconsistent and bad for stretches of 2023" if you want to phrase it that way. What happens if his "bad" months are .240/.300/.440, and he only has one or two of those months? He had a .394/.456/.747 month in 2022 and a .429/.474/.724 month in 2023. Limited bad months and you throw one of those in?

Yeah, Julio Rodriguez can definitely win the MVP if he does that. 2024 might just be the year that he not only wins the MVP, but that he more importantly wins his first MVP... of many.