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Reason #2 he won't win: Consistency
This is a close second for me, and it needs to be mentioned. Julio has struggled with consistency so far in his young career, and I think it rubs people the wrong way sometimes. To them, I want to send a reminder that the kid just turned 23, and completed his age 21 and 22 seasons over the past two years.
Also, it's worth taking a look at how his splits ACTUALLY look instead of just blindly believing a narrative.
Month | 2022 Slash | 2023 Slash |
|---|---|---|
March/April | .206/.284/.260 | .239/.301/.443 |
May | .309/.339/.527 | .252/.314/.441 |
June | .280/.361/.542 | .220/.291/.330 |
July | .267/.337/.547 | .293/.353/.472 |
August | .240/.288/.413 | .429/.474/.724 |
September/October | .394/.456/.747 | .227/.277/.496 |
He was fairly consistent in 2022, suffering from a slow start before heating up. 2023 was a different story and didn't look nearly as good from a consistency standpoint. Julio can heat up with the best of them, evidenced by his historic August. Is the consistency a problem? A season like 2023 might accentuate the argument, especially with a slow start paired with a slow finish.
If Julio has a handful of "bad" months, from the standpoint of an MVP candidate, that go hand-in-hand with the Mariners not performing well, then I think it's going to be a mark against him winning the award.