MLB Draft history warns not to expect too much from Mariners' No. 24 pick

When you consider the Mariners have only been around for five decades, the MLB Draft has been extremely kind to them over the years highlighted by getting Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez. And just last year they managed to position themselves to select Kade Anderson, who already looks like a winner. However, the M's fanbase has to accept this year's first round could be a dud.

The higher you pick, the better the chance of getting a top-tier talent who will succeed. It's no surprise Griffey had a Hall of Fame career and Rodriguez performed at a similar level, with both being selected first overall. Meanwhile, Anderson is seemingly poised for success after being taken third and actually considered by many to be the top prospect in the 2025 draft class.

This time around, the Mariners have the 24th pick in the first round. History tells us not to expect fireworks.

Giving full credit to SoDo Mojo's Zach Rymer for crunching the numbers on every first-round pick in Major League history, some telling numbers emerge that should double as a warning of sorts to Mariners fans. On a surface level the No. 24 pick only has a 60 percent Major League graduation rate, meaning a 40 percent chance of not yielding a MLB-level player.

The pick has a maximum fWAR of 23.8 by Rondell White and a total overall output of about 161 fWAR. Other notable picks at No. 24 over the years including Nico Hoerner, Terry Mulholland, Joe Blanton, Chad Billingsley, and Walker Buehler. All told, there has been some success stories, but the reality is no superstar has ever come out of the 24th pick.

Some reason for hope depending on the approach Mariners fans take with the 2026 draft

In fairness, drafting higher still doesn't guarantee success. We're sure plenty of people in Seattle groan when you mention Dustin Ackley, who they picked second overall in 2009 and went on to have an extremely disappointing career. On the flip side, and causing even more groans, in the same draft the Angels took Mike Trout 25th overall and he's gone on to enjoy a phenomenal career which includes three AL MVP Awards.

Really, it comes down to how Mariners fans want to approach the upcoming draft, which will take place in Philadelphia starting on July 11. In essence, would they prefer to be realistic or hopeful? On the one hand, if you are all about pure statistics and analytics, then historically the No. 24 pick isn't really much to write home about.

On the other hand though, we don't want to suggest the Mariners are totally screwed. Jerry Dipoto has a track record of uncovering hidden gems in the draft, including taking Cal Raleigh in the third round, Bryce Miller in the fourth and Bryan Woo in the sixth. If anyone can work some magic with the 24th pick it's Dipoto, but history is going to be the ultimate test of this narrative.

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