Mind-blowing statistic must make Mariners reassess Randy Arozarena's free agency

Right-handed hitting is not one of the Seattle Mariners' strengths right now. With Cal Raleigh out, it's basically Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena and then pray for rain. Simultaneously, though, those latter two names amount to an embarrassment of riches.

Every now and then, someone drops a statistic that lands like a bomb. Matt Gelb of The Athletic did exactly this in a piece about the Philadelphia Phillies and their quest for right-handed-hitting outfielders, noting that such players only have a .695 OPS this year. It's their worst showing since 1969, and it gets worse: "In fact, five of the six worst seasons for righty outfielders since 1969 have come since 2022."

But the Mariners? They're different. Between Julio and Arozarena, they have two very good righty outfielders. They're a key reason why the team has gotten 10.4 fWAR out of righty outfielders since the start of 2025, the third-best mark in baseball.

Julio isn't going anywhere anytime soon. But Arozarena, of course, is set to be a free agent after this season. And with how his fellow soon-to-be free agents are playing, he might even be the best hitter available this winter. He's off to a terrific start with a 148 OPS+ and 2.3 rWAR.

For a while now, the general assumption has been that the Mariners will make the 31-year-old a qualifying offer and then thank him for his service. There hasn't been any extension buzz regarding the 2021 AL Rookie of the Year, and his free-agent value figures to be beyond Seattle's relatively limited comfort zone.

Mariners need to reckon with how hard it will be to replace Randy Arozarena

Just on its own, the reality of righty-hitting outfielders should spook the Mariners into considering a run at keeping Arozarena, either as a free agent or via an extension. Because if they do lose him, they stand to face the sheer discomfort of replacing him.

Michael Arroyo has been positioned as Arozarena's natural successor in left field, but that experiment has not been a smashing success at Double-A Arkansas. He's pretty much stalled out there, producing a .718 OPS over 93 games after owning High-A pitching for a .925 OPS over 125 games,

In lieu of keeping Arozarena, the Mariners could always go the stopgap route and grab someone to platoon with Brendan Donovan, Luke Raley and/or Dominic Canzone. But the very word "platoon" gives Mariners fans anxiety at this point, and that alone makes one wary of scooping up a Taylor Ward, a Ramón Laureano or a Lane Thomas on a low-risk deal.

It thus comes back around to the potential cost of keeping Arozarena. The most likely outcome for him in free agency is a market similar to that of Teoscar Hernández, a fellow 30-something righty-hitting corner outfielder with a questionable glove. Even after rejecting a qualifying offer, he landed a three-year, $66 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers after the 2024 season.

Would a similar deal really be too rich for the Mariners? They will have J.P. Crawford ($12 million), Rob Refsnyder ($6.25 million) and Victor Robles ($5.125 million) coming off the books. And with Kade Anderson looming over their rotation, they could potentially free up more payroll space by trading Luis Castillo ($24.15 million), Logan Gilbert ($10.927 million) or George Kirby ($6.55 million).

This is all just asking questions, not to mention making assumptions on Arozarena's free agency. Never mind just his, everyone's free agency is going to be tricky this winter.

But it's all in service of hoping the Mariners know what they have, because it's clearly something special.

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