Julio Rodríguez's Mariners deal looks even better after Red Sox stunner

The Boston Red Sox locked up their best young outfielder with a new contract extension on Wednesday, and the structure of the deal should look vaguely familiar to Seattle Mariners fans who have studied Julio Rodríguez's precedent-shattering deal.

The outfielder in question is Roman Anthony, who ESPN's Jeff Passan reports is in agreement on an eight-year, $130 million contract with the Red Sox. It will cover the 2026-2033 seasons, with a club option for 2034 as well.

Depending on his play, the 21-year-old Anthony could end up making significantly more than $130 million throughout the life of the deal, including the option year. As per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe, escalators based on "Rookie of the Year and MVP voting as well as All-Star appearances" could increase its value to $230 million.

Three years later, Julio Rodríguez's Mariners continues to age well

Though Anthony is only 46 games into his major league career, the Red Sox have every right to feel bullish. He was MLB Pipeline's No. 1 prospect when he got the call in June, and he has since hit the ground running with a .400 OBP and 132 OPS+.

He's also standing on the shoulders of those who came before him, as he's now the fifth talented young outfielder to sign a nine-figure extension just within the last six years:

• April, 2019: Ronald Acuña Jr. signs with Atlanta Braves for 8 years, $100 million
• August, 2022: Julio Rodríguez signs with Seattle Mariners for 12 years, $209.3 million
• March 2023: Corbin Carroll signs with Arizona Diamondbacks for 8 years, $111 million
• April, 2025: Jackson Merrill signs with San Diego Padres for 9 years, $135 million
• August, 2025: Roman Anthony signs with Boston Red Sox for 8 years, $130 million

On the surface, Anthony's deal has more in common with those of Carroll and Merrill than it does with that of Rodríguez. Heck, even an inflation-adjusted version of Acuña's deal from 2019 comes out to roughly $130 million.

It's the $100 million worth of escalators that really set Anthony's deal apart, however. Acuña's deal doesn't have any, whereas Carroll's and Merrill's contracts only give them a shot at an extra $20 and $30 million, respectively.

This is where the Red Sox's deal with Anthony really seems to be taking a page from the Mariners' pact with Rodríguez, which isn't truly the 12-year, $209.3 million deal it's commonly presented as.

The baseline deal called for Rodríguez to get a $15 million signing bonus and $105 million in salaries over seven years through 2029. But it also gives way to a whole bunch of dealer's choices after 2028, including a 10-year, $350 million contract option for the Mariners to exercise if Julio has won two MVP Awards or placed in the top five four times. The total deal in that case would be for 18 years and $470 million.

That may sound absurd, but it's really not in an era where there are not one, but two players in MLB with $700 million contracts. It also averages out to just $26.1 million per year, which would be the 30th-highest average salary by today's standards.

Then there's the reality that Rodríguez isn't positioned to actually collect $470 million from the Mariners over 18 years. As he's finished in the top 10 of the AL MVP voting twice, the option he's in line for after 2028 is the eight-year, $240 million one. In this event, the deal will pay out $360 million over 16 years.

It's another case of absurd-sounding numbers that are totally reasonable. That's essentially a Mookie Betts deal with four extra years to lower the average salary to $22.5 million. That is less per year than what Anthony stands to earn (i.e., $25.6 million) even if he maxes out the earning power of his new deal. And that's over just nine years.

In the meantime, the obvious difference between Anthony and Rodríguez is just how much more of a known quantity the latter was three years ago and still is today.

He was well on his way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year when he signed on the dotted line in 2022, and the Mariners clearly didn't get the wrong idea from his first impression. He is the first player in history to debut with four straight 20-20 seasons, and he's averaged 6.2 rWAR per 162 games. Overall, he's seventh-most valuable hitter in MLB since the start of 2022.

Is he a perfect player? Of course not. His offense tends to come around, but is inconsistent by way of various bad habits. He also has a tendency to cut into his baserunning value by being overly adventurous at times and overly careless at others.

On the whole, though, he's an elite player who the Mariners can basically keep forever at rates that are perfectly reasonable right now, much less a decade down the line. And basically every time any other talented young outfielder strikes a new deal, Julio's comes off looking even better for the Mariners.