Mariners star Julio Rodríguez's approach isn't the only thing wrecking his season

Julio Rodríguez’s 2025 season has been nothing short of perplexing. The Seattle Mariners’ franchise cornerstone and former AL Rookie of the Year has looked like a shell of the superstar that broke onto the scene in 2022 and helped end one of the longest playoff droughts in sports. While his raw tools remain elite, the results simply haven’t followed, and the root of the problem doesn't seem to just be his approach.

Rodríguez has been one of the most aggressive hitters in baseball this season, and it’s working against him in a big way. Far too often, he’s expanding the zone early in at-bats and getting himself into poor hitter’s counts. While the MLB average for first-pitch swing percentage is just 31.8, Julio is swinging at nearly 52 percent of all first pitches. This is not only enormously high compared to the league average but also more than 10 percent higher than any other season in his early career.

This lack of patience has led to weaker contact and fewer chances to drive the ball with authority. As a result, his slugging percentage has plummeted to just .389, shockingly low for a player known for his easy power and gap-to-gap damage.

The Mariners are also suffering from Julio Rodríguez's ground ball habit

While Julio still flashes elite bat speed (94th percentile) and his average exit velocity is above league average in the 67th percentile, the contact profile isn’t matching the raw tools. He’s hitting the ball hard, but not in the right way.

His average launch angle this season sits at just 8.4 degrees, well below the MLB average of 12.4. That’s a sharp drop from the 10.1 mark during his breakout 2022 campaign
even further from the 10.5 mark during his 2024 season. That decline helps explain why he’s hit an overwhelming number of ground balls with only four players in all of Major League Baseball having hit more grounders than Julio this year.

When you put together the over-aggression, the high ground ball rate, and the diminishing ability to elevate, the numbers reflect the reality. A 101 wRC+ means Julio is essentially a league-average hitter in 2025, despite earning another All-Star appearance due to his elite defense and sheer star power. For most players, that’s respectable. For Julio Rodríguez, it’s alarming.

Seattle needs their star to be more than average. The good news is that the underlying metrics like bat speed, exit velocity, and track record for a later summer heater, suggest a turnaround is still possible. But until Julio makes an adjustment, particularly in his approach and batted-ball profile, he remains stuck in a slump that’s dragging down the heart of the Mariners’ offense and placing an enormous amount of pressure on Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena putting up career years.