Mariners star Julio Rodríguez's big 2025 change is doing more harm than good

This is not the place to be if you're expecting Julio Rodríguez smack talk. While some call the Seattle Mariners center fielder overrated, our stance is that he has actually become underrated. The first All-Star voting update pretty much confirmed it.

But since nobody is above constructive criticism, here's what we are willing to say: Maybe cut down on the swings a little, Julio.

There's been a sudden convergence of discourse on Rodríguez's approach in the batter's box, with Adam Jude of The Seattle Times and ESPN's Jeff Passan notably sounding off on how aggressive it's been. And the truth of that is all there in the numbers, specifically in new career highs for first-pitch swing rate (53.1 percent) and overall swing rate (56.8 percent).

“Not being afraid,” was how the 24-year-old explained himself to Jude. “Just trusting yourself, trusting your ability and that your eyes are going to recognize something in the zone. And be ready to go. And just kind of making them uncomfortable, too. Like, know that I’m going to be looking to swing.”

Julio Rodríguez's aggression is hurting more than it's helping

Without a doubt, the best defense of Rodríguez's approach concerns what he's doing to 0-0 pitches: crushing them. He's batting .354 with five home runs against the first pitch, compared to .226 with five homers against all other pitches.

This success underscores the logic of being aggressive against the first pitch. As Passan said in his interview with Brock and Salk on Tuesday, "the 0-0 pitch is quite often the best one you’re going to see in any given at-bat." Because of course it is! Every pitcher wants to start an at-bat with a strike, which makes 0-0 the best time to look for a fastball or something in the zone.

And yet, there is the uncomfortable reality of what happens when Rodríguez doesn't strike gold on a first-pitch swing.

To this end, we know that he's falling into 0-1 counts more often than he did in any of his first three seasons with the Mariners. It's not the worst hole to be in, but the league's splits never fail to confirm that it is indeed a hole:

• After 1-0: .799 OPS
• After 0-1: .596 OPS

Rather than proving to be an outlier, Rodríguez is actually underperforming the league average after 0-1 counts. His OPS in those spots is .586.

None of this is surprising, as the pitcher gains the advantage after getting a first-pitch strike and can force the hitter into riskier swings. And while it is a positive that Rodríguez's strikeout rate is a career-low 20.2 percent, that obscures how many of his swings are coming up empty.

His overall contact rate is down to a career-low 70.8 percent, and he's making contact against only 47.6 percent of the pitches he chases outside the zone. That is yet another career low, and it's being fueled largely by a whopping 69 percent whiff rate when he specifically chases after breaking balls.

Perhaps more so than any of the above, the best evidence that Rodríguez's new approach isn't working might be the fact that his OPS is only .724. It's on track to be the lowest of his career, and it pales in comparison to his best (.782 in 2022, the year he won AL Rookie of the Year) through the first 73 games of a season.

Given his reputation as a guy who starts cold and gets hot as the weather warms up, it is also disconcerting that Rodríguez is actually cooling down in June.

It's nice that he's batting .297 for the month, but he has yet to go deep once after doing so four times in March and April and six times in May. It doesn't feel like an unrelated story that he's seen a ton of breaking stuff this month. It's as if pitchers have caught on and are saying, "If you want to swing, try hitting this."

Granted, Rodríguez is well on his way to another successful season anyway. Courtesy of a boost from his spectacular defense, he's already up to 3.2 rWAR. That is fifth among AL position players, and second among outfielders behind only Aaron Judge.

This said, he doesn't have anything to lose by toning down his approach. As fun as it is when it works, it's just not working often enough to justify sticking with it.