Mariners prospect's sluggish stock must force a hard look at risky experiment

The Seattle Mariners had plenty to celebrate when Baseball America dropped its latest top 100 prospects. Colt Emerson and Kade Anderson made the top 10, while Ryan Sloan, Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo also made the cut. The usual suspects, perhaps, though how Arroyo fits into the picture deserves scrutiny.

That Arroyo has climbed into the No. 87 spot smacks of the publication coming around. The 21-year-old Colombian didn't even make the top 100 back during the preseason, prompting Editor-in-Chief JJ Cooper to explain to a commenter that Arroyo was "being asked to play a new position (and we don't know how well he can play it)."

Cooper was referring to Arroyo's move from second base to left field, and this is where the good news begins to kick in. He's looked solid out there, making three assists and showing off decent enough range on fly balls.

Yet while this might explain why Baseball America is coming around on Arroyo, there's also the reality that various prospect graduations have thinned out their pool of options for their top 100. He might not be rising so much as next-man-upping his way up the list.

Then there's the other, more concerning reality of Arroyo's stock right now: He hasn't been hitting.

The Mariners might want to walk back their plan to have Michael Arrroyo play left field

Arroyo's bat is meant to be his carrying tool, and the evidence of its potency is right there in what he did in 2024 and 2025. He cleared a .400 OBP both years and smashed a total of 40 home runs.

Alas, he's doing nothing of the sort for Double-A Arkansas in 2026. Even after multi-hit games in five of his last eight contests, he still only has a .254/.324/.365 slash line and three home runs through 32 games.

The twist is that the action in left field isn't necessarily to blame for his coldness. Dig these splits:

• As 2B: 17 G, .679 OPS, 2 HR
• AS LF: 13 G, .716 OPS, 1 HR

However, we're talking very small sample sizes here. That difference in OPS hides a couple things, and not just a long fly ball that was swallowed up by Dickey-Stephens Park on May 5, when Arroyo was playing second base. He's also been more prone to strikeouts when he's played left field (30.5 K%) compared to second base (18.9 K%). And further on the aforementioned run of multi-hit games, four of the five have come as a second baseman.

This is where the Mariners have to start asking questions, specifically relating to whether Arroyo's status as a decent fly-ball catcher is worth it if his bat plays better at second base. And while there are also the assists, throws like this one aren't overly convincing:

"I've seen worse," say all the Boston Red Sox fans out there. And true, at least Arroyo's throw was on target. But pretty, it wasn't. That was a three-hopper that barely beat a slow runner to the plate.

It's up to the Mariners to determine how long their Arroyo experiment is worth pursuing. If they stick with it, the only way to win is to be right. They would need his bat to come alive and for him to increase his competence in the outfield.

Trouble is, the team also has a real incentive to prioritize getting Arroyo's bat going as soon as possible. Given that the big club is a World Series contender, him remaining cold into the summer months would stand to be a problem ahead of the August 3 trade deadline. He's no good (or at least, not as good) as a trade chip if his bat isn't working.

It's a whole new risk/reward ratio for the Mariners. And until further notice, they're testing just how risky the risk is.

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