Mariners' undying connection to Munetaka Murakami is starting to make sense

The Seattle Mariners began their offseason shopping in "Run It Back Mode" by re-signing Josh Naylor, but now they're in something more like "Scramble Mode." Jorge Polanco is a New York Met, leaving the Mariners to find the big bat they need elsewhere.

It's hard to spill any more ink about trade targets like Ketel Marte and Brendan Donovan, who Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports are still in play for Seattle. Yet it's not as if the free-agent market is devoid of options, and shooting an eye in the direction of Munetaka Murakami is proving to be a hard habit to quit.

Murakami signing with the Mariners has been a popular speculative outcome from Day 1 of his posting in November, and on it goes several weeks later. Jim Bowden of The Athletic is still trumpeting the fit, as is David Schoenfield of ESPN.

Mariners' undying connection to Munetaka Murakami is starting to make sense

The official position of this outlet is that Murakami just has too many red flags. Or at least, too many as to be worthy of just the second nine-figure deal handed out by Jerry Dipoto in free agency. That would be a massive bet on a guy with serious swing-and-miss issues, not to mention an athletic profile that points to a future role as a designated hitter.

Yet the conversation — or at least the tone of it — has shifted in recent days. Murakami's 45-day window to sign with an MLB team is due to expire on December 22, and there has been shockingly little buzz on whether he has any favorites, or really any interested parties.

It could be because negotiations are being kept secret in an unusually effective way. Or, it could be because everyone else sees his red flags and has chosen to run out the clock. Murakami can either pick an offer this coming Monday or he can go back to Japan, and Rosenthal doesn't expect the latter to happen:

The eight-year, $180 million contract that MLB Trade Rumors projected for Murakami still looks way too rich for the Mariners, but it doesn't seem like his market is headed that way. ESPN's projection of five years, $80 million could be the more likely outcome at this point.

Now, that's a deal the Mariners could do. They're looking at opening 2026 with a payroll in the same neighborhood as the one with which they ended 2025. And as of now, those two figures are $15 million apart.

A five-year, $80 million deal for Murakami would pay out $16 million per year, which hardly seems like a bridge too far. His red flags are real, but so is the power that produced 246 home runs in eight NPB seasons, including a high of 56 in 2022. He could potentially more than replace the 26 bombs the Mariners got from Polanco this year, and he would do so at a discount relative to the $20 million per year he'll make as a Met over the next two seasons.

This is not to be mistaken for a full-throated endorsement for the Mariners to sign Murakami. But if the Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals push too hard for too much in exchange for Marte and Donovan, a last-minute pivot to Murakami will make sense.