Munetaka Murakami’s red flags should scare the hell out of the Mariners

For all the buzz about Munetaka Murakami potentially making the jump to MLB, the hype is starting to look more like a high-voltage risk than a sure-fire investment — especially for a team like the Seattle Mariners. ESPN recently labeled Seattle as Murakami’s “best fit,” which sounds flattering on the surface, but it also reeks of the kind of match that ignores the actual swing data. 

Murakami’s strength isn’t the question. Since 2021, he’s averaged more than 35 homers a year in NPB and can punish mistakes with the kind of loft and carry any front office dreams on. The issue is what you have to live with to get that punch. 

 Munetaka Murakami’s swing risks are a terrible match for the Mariners’ reality

Over the last three seasons, he’s fanned in roughly 30 percent of his plate appearances in a league where the strikeout rate hovers around 18 percent, a gap that’s hard to shrug off as “part of the profile.” That swing-and-miss problem doesn’t project to smooth out against MLB-grade velocity and sequencing — it’s more likely to get exposed.

The raw data against velocity paints an even scarier picture. According to MLB writer James Schiano, Murakami hit just .093 against pitches 93 mph or faster in 2024. Even more telling, his contact rate against those same fastballs sits at a shaky 63 percent since 2022. For context, the average MLB hitter whiffs on only about 21 percent of fastballs 93-plus mph during that same span. 

In other words, Murakami’s swing decisions and reaction times are more than just “behind” — they’re practically in another time zone when it comes to big-league heat. And it doesn’t stop there; his contact rates against breaking and off-speed pitches have fallen to near 50 percent, meaning pitchers don’t even have to overpower him to expose the holes.

Murakami checks a very real box for Seattle: left-handed juice that can flip an inning with one swing. That skill set isn’t imaginary, and it would absolutely play at T-Mobile. But the price of admission matters. You’re talking about a commitment in the neighborhood of $30 million a year for a hitter whose struggles against premium velocity and growing swing-and-miss tendencies cast real doubt on how smoothly his game will translate.

This is an organization that’s tried to anchor its identity to run prevention, zone control, and sustainable at-bats. Hitching that model to a high-strikeout, contact-risk bat at ace-level money isn’t bold so much as it is off-brand.

If Murakami makes the transition and figures out MLB velocity, he could absolutely be a star. But if he doesn’t, Seattle would be paying superstar money for the kind of volatility they’ve been trying to escape for years. The Mariners don’t need another player who can hit the scoreboard one night and disappear for the next five. They need balance, reliability, and a swing built for adaptation, not admiration.