Jerry Dipoto's hint about 2026 payroll is exactly what Mariners fans wanted to hear

The pain of how the Seattle Mariners' season ended is still there, but it's time to stop licking wounds and start making plans. The offseason is coming, and how Jerry Dipoto tackles it will be what determines if Game 7 of the ALCS was the end of the road or a jumping-off point.

To this end, the mind inevitably goes to one question: What is payroll going to be in 2026?

This isn't actually up to Dipoto, yet he still gave an encouraging answer when asked during a gathering with the media at T-Mobile Park on Thursday.

“I would say similar to where we ended the year as a starting point,” Dipoto told reporters, according to Cameron Van Til of Seattle Sports. He also added: “We ended the season, I think, with the second-highest or highest payroll that we’ve ever had as a franchise. And this was always the goal — to methodically build toward what we were doing.”

Dipoto has his facts in order here. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the club's 40-man payroll for 2025 ended at $165.2 million, the highest in franchise history.

The Mariners will have room to add if Jerry Dipoto is right about the 2026 payroll

The obvious caveat here is that the Mariners' 2026 payroll is not up to Dipoto, but rather to principal owner John Stanton. And even after five straight years of escalating payrolls, he clearly has a sweet spot that is somewhere in the middle of Major League Baseball as a whole.

That said, the pattern should be clear. The Mariners are five years into a run as a contender in the American League, and the year with the highest payroll yielded the best results — not just their first AL West title in 24 years, but a first-round bye and six playoff wins.

So, let's assume that Stanton is just as unsatisfied with the way 2025 ended as Dipoto clearly is. And accordingly, that payroll will indeed pick up in 2026 where it left off this season. What then?

Daniel Kramer of MLB.com wrote this week that the Mariners have about $135 million in commitments on the books for 2026. If so, that hypothetically gives them room to add as much as $30 million in salary, or double their reported budget for the 2024-25 offseason.

There have been many indications, including from Adam Jude of the Seattle Times, that the Mariners' main priority is going to be re-signing Josh Naylor. It's a no-brainer after how much he helped the team after coming over from Arizona in July, though it figures to be costly.

Even so, the contract terms that Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times threw out in September — i.e., six years, $110 million or five years, $100 million — point to an average annual value of at most $20 million for Naylor. If so, they could get a deal done and still have some money left over.

There could even be enough to also bring back Jorge Polanco, who is sure to decline a $6 million player option in favor of free agency. He has helium after a season that netted him a Silver Slugger finalist nod, yet his age (32), injury history and defensive limitations will likely hinder him on the market. It's plausible that he could be brought back for $12-15 million per year on a short multi-year deal. And if so, that is also doable for the Mariners.

This is the straightforward, relatively low-risk path for the Mariners' offseason. Other options include chasing after one big piece, such as Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami. They could also create even more payroll space, potentially by trading Luis Castillo or Randy Arozarena. That way, they might not have to choose between the big piece and keeping Naylor and/or Polanco.

Either way, it's comforting that the Mariners don't have to cut salary before they can add salary. And after coming as close to the World Series as a team possibly can without actually getting there, anything less than a 2026 payroll at least as large as the 2025 payroll would simply be unacceptable.