Mariners open 2nd half with a must-win gut check vs. hated Astros

Welcome to the second half of the Seattle Mariners' 2025 season. As much as we'd like to invite everyone to sit down and get comfortable, the reality is that this is a tense situation.

Though it was ultimately a successful journey that ended in style with a sweep of the MLB-best Detroit Tigers, the first half of the Mariners' season was also a proper roller-coaster that delved into some deep, dark tunnels. All the injuries were a bummer. So was Julio Rodríguez's dramatically inconsistent offensive performance. And while the M's are technically in line to make the playoffs, the third wild-card spot is the kind of thing you settle for only on the last day of a season.

The hope, obviously, is that the Mariners will steady the proverbial ship and find smoother waters as they strive to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2022. It's perfectly OK to feel bullish about this, particularly given that the trade deadline is nearing and could result in some major reinforcements in the Pacific Northwest.

In the meantime, though, here come the Houston Astros for three games at T-Mobile Park to begin the second half. It's never nice to see them, even if they are strutting into the Pacific Northwest with a bit of a limp.

The Mariners have an opportunity to cut into the Astros' AL West lead

Without getting into the whole "the Atlanta Braves should trade Ronald Acuña Jr." aspect of it, one has to hand it to how Joel Sherman of the New York Post referred to the Astros during a segment on MLB Network earlier this month.

He called them the "zombie Astros," which is a sick burn...on the Mariners.

Yes, recent years have seen the Astros wave goodbye to franchise stalwarts like George Springer, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Gerrit Cole, and Justin Verlander. And yes, it is convenient for the Mariners that they are short-handed with Jeremy Peña, Yordan Alvarez and a whole bunch of pitchers on the injured list.

Yet at 56-40, the Astros are in first place by 5.0 games over the Mariners. Only two other divisional leaders have a larger lead, and FanGraphs gives the Astros a 73.3 percent chance to hold onto it. It's quite the change of pace compared to Opening Day, when the Mariners were a 36.1 percent favorite to win the AL West.

To be fair, the switcheroo in the AL West favorite chair has happened in part because of unforeseen circumstances for the Mariners. They could not have anticipated Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller all spending ample time on the injured list. Even more so, they could not have anticipated Victor Robles and Ryan Bliss suffering potentially season-ending injuries shortly after Opening Day.

Yet even now, with close to 60 percent of the season in the books, it's still fair to be hung up on how ill-equipped the Mariners were to deal with such trauma. This largely traces back to an offseason when Jerry Dipoto inexplicably chose to let it ride with a roster that wasn't quite good enough in 2024, whereas the Astros took bold risks by signing Christian Walker (which has not worked out) and trading Tucker (which absolutely has).

In the Mariners' defense, they have played the Astros tougher than most in the last five years, going 35-36 against them overall. Yet the Mariners have finished ahead of them in the standings not once, and the same is true thus far in 2025 in part because Houston has won four out of seven head-to-head matchups. The worst was in May, when the Astros took three of four from Seattle at Daikin Park.

The Mariners managed to catch up to the Astros at the end of the first half, cutting a 7.0-game deficit down by two games via the sweep in Detroit. That happened amid a 1-5 stretch for Houston, which has begun to feel the weight of its injuries.

And yet, everyone ought to know better than to count on momentum as a savior for this Mariners team. Every time they've had it, they've tended to lose it. True of all teams, perhaps, but momentum is that much more tempting to trust and that much more agonizing to lose when the fanbase in question is as desperate as the Mariners'. One playoff berth in a quarter-century and no World Series appearances in nearly half-century will have that effect.

To this end, a win in this weekend's series will be a feel-good story to accept with a grain of salt. But given the stakes, it would sure beat the alternative of another disappointment courtesy of those darned Astros.

Game Times and Probable Pitchers for Mariners vs. Astros, July 18-20

• Friday, July 18 at 7:10 p.m. PT: Brandon Walter vs. Luis Castillo
• Saturday, July 19 at 6:40 p.m. PT: Lance McCullers Jr. at Logan Evans
• Sunday, July 20 at 1:10 p.m. PT: TBD vs. TBD