5 bold predictions for Mariners' trade deadline and rest of 2025 season

The Seattle Mariners will be on a mission in the second half of the 2025 season, and the objective is clear: Shake off consecutive near-misses and get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2022.

The Mariners could be in a worse spot as they wait to resume their campaign on Friday against the Houston Astros. They ended their first half in style with a sweep of the MLB-best Detroit Tigers, and their 51-45 record would have been good enough for the American League's third wild card spot if that had marked the end of the regular season.

And yet, the question remains: What's next for the Mariners?

We've come with five bold predictions for what awaits at the July 31 trade deadline and in the second half of the season at large. These aren't so bold as to be impossible, a la something like "Ken Griffey Jr. will de-age by 30 years and come to the rescue." They are meant to be eyebrow-raising while still fitting within the realm of possibility.

2 predictions for the Mariners' trade deadline activity

1. They'll add Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor

There's a good debate to be had as to whether Suárez or Naylor is the better trade target for the Mariners. But if it was up to us, we wouldn't have to choose. Both would be massive upgrades for a third base spot with a .671 OPS and a first base spot with a .721 OPS. Their combined OPS in 2025 is .854, with a total of 42 home runs.

Bluntly, Jerry Dipoto shouldn't have to choose either. There is all sorts of buzz that he and ownership mean to be aggressive on the trade market, and it's hard to fathom reasons why they can't fulfil that desire with a Suárez-Naylor blockbuster. The Mariners have more than enough prospects to entice the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are reportedly being eyed for a fire sale.

2. They'll also win the Jhoan Duran sweepstakes

Ah, but word is that the Mariners also want to add a high-leverage arm to their bullpen. They darn well should, as even a recent run of strong relief work has only done so much to redeem Dan Wilson's options. To wit, Mariners relievers rank 19th in strikeout percentage.

Athletics closer Mason Miller is a far-flung option, but a more practical and just as compelling target is Minnesota Twins righty Jhoan Duran. He throws harder than even Andrés Muñoz and is under club control through 2027. These things naturally mean a high price tag, but the Mariners can afford it and should want to pay it.

3 predictions for the rest of the Mariners' 2025 season

1. Cal Raleigh is not going to hit 60 homers or win AL MVP

Look, this thing had to take a dark turn at some point. And this one hurts, as Cal Raleigh might be the biggest star in baseball in the wake of his record-setting 38 home runs in the first half and his extraordinary victory in the Home Run Derby.

And yet, a 64-homer pace feels a little too good to be true just in the abstract. Then there's the fact that Raleigh plays the most physically demanding position in the sport, plus the very real likelihood that he should have fewer homers. T-Mobile Park isn't a launching pad, after all, and Statcast estimates that "Big Dumper" should have more like 30 homers.

Even if Raleigh does get to 60 homers, the odds of winning the AL MVP may still be against him. That Aaron Judge fellow is a beast, as he's also chasing 60 homers (again) and lapping the field with 7.1 rWAR and a 1.194 OPS for the New York Yankees.

2. But Julio Rodríguez is going to be the AL's best player of the 2nd half

Back on the bright side, we haven't lost faith in Julio Rodríguez reclaiming his status as a superstar. Well, maybe a little bit...but not so much as to blindly ignore what he has going for him.

Something clicked for him at the end of the first half, as he went into Detroit slumping and came out with six hits (including two doubles and three homers) to show for the series. He was swinging angry, as if he was fed up with the baseball after it spent much of the first half eluding the barrel of his bat.

Perhaps this was Julio getting a head start on his annual second-half heater, as his OPS after the All-Star break is 166 points higher than his first-half OPS. If so, he's about to pair his already elite defense with the elite offense that the Mariners expect.

3. The Mariners will win the AL West

The Mariners face an arduous climb back to the top of the AL West. The Astros lead them by 5.0 games, and have indeed led by at least that many games daily since June 18.

Houston does face headwinds, however. Their remaining schedule is more difficult than the one the Mariners are staring down, and they also have fewer remaining home games. The Astros will play at Daikin Park just 29 more times, compared to 35 more games at T-Mobile Park for the Mariners.

Besides, we've come too far to not commit to the bit. Even if Raleigh does cool down, the trade deadline reinforcements and the Julio heat-up that we're predicting — and we'll at least mention that the rotation is about to be whole for the first time all season — stand to lift the Mariners like a pair of rocket boots.

Of course, even if the Mariners do win the AL West for the first time since 2001, that would still leave the question of what would await them in the playoffs...but that is a bold predictions piece for another day.