Mariners must consider if Josh Naylor deserves the Robbie Ray treatment this winter

Even allowing for the impressive series win versus the Rangers, things are looking bleak for the Mariners and their playoff chances. The reality is they'll struggle to even finish .500, which should by extension lead to an offseason undertaking a deep dive and full roster revamp. Nothing should be off the table, even if this includes drastic moves such as potentially parting company with Josh Naylor.

To be clear, we're not exactly thrilled about the prospect of Naylor leaving Seattle, but subjectivity needs to removed from the equation, with the Mariners instead relying on cold, harsh, objective analysis and tough decisions. Like what the organization did back at the beginning of 2024, when they traded Robbie Ray away after completing just two seasons of the five-year deal he was signed to with such fanfare.

As the majority of Mariners fans will be well aware, Ray was coming off a Cy Young-winning campaign with the Blue Jays in 2021, when he signed his $115 million deal to come to Seattle. However, even though he wasn't an outright disaster during his first season with the M's, he also wasn't the staff ace he was brought in to be. Perhaps best highlighting, but also making things seem even worse than they actually were, was the walk-off three-run homer he gave up to the Astros' Yordan Alvarez in Game 1 of the 2022 ALDS.

Josh Naylor has looked nothing like the player who galvanized the Mariners last season

Following an excellent spring training the following year, hopes were high that Ray would bounce back and rekindle something close to what he did in Toronto. However, these hopes lasted just 3.1 innings into his first start of the 2023 regular season, before he suffered what turned out to be a season-ending torn flexor tendon. He never did pitch again for the Mariners, as he was subsequently traded away to the Giants in January of 2024.

Which brings us back to Naylor, who has had an extremely disappointing 2026 campaign, albeit you can say that about a lot of the Mariners roster. Sure, he's had his moments, particularly stealing 26 bases, but overall has not come close to living up to his role in what was meant to be the M's 'Big 3' along with the equally disappointing Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez. Certainly, it doesn't make for pretty reading when you look at Naylor's stat line, which includes the likes of a .359 slugging percentage, 97 OPS+ and 0.2 bWAR.

More than this, where have the vibes gone with Naylor, who last season was a galvanizing force following his trade from Arizona? He was arguably the biggest reason behind the Mariners getting closer than ever to that first World Series berth. Now, it feels like he has been in the background all year, with his Energizer Bunny impression seemingly running on a low battery and by extension frustrating fans with his lack of hustle.

Do the M's ultimately keep faith in Josh Naylor, or detach all emotions and part company?

This leads to the question of what the Mariners should expect from Naylor, with still four more years of his $92.5 million deal remaining? He's going to be 30 next year, and what plenty of critics see -- fair or not -- is an aging, big-bodied first baseman whose power is seemingly already gone. Are we at a point when the M's must seriously consider giving him the Ray treatment during the offseason?

Assuming the Mariners were to make the decision to move on from Naylor, what would make for a potential trade destination? One possible idea is to send him to Toronto in a swap for Anthony Santander, who is on the same contract as the 2024 All-Star, but has three years remaining instead of four. In this scenario, Naylor gets to go home to Canada and with the possibility of being part of a first baseman/DH rotation with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has incidentally also had his struggles this season.

Ultimately, expecting Naylor to get back to the productivity he displayed last year in Seattle seems unrealistic. Still, we want to be optimistic he can at least get back around his career averages of a .761 OPS and 113 OPS+, along with discovering his galvanzing mojo to inspire the team. Again though, we accept the Mariners need to asses things in an uncompromising light devoid of emotion and if necessary shake things up, even if this means discarding Naylor.

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