Josh Naylor is pushing his Mariners honeymoon period to its breaking point

Josh Naylor could do no wrong last season after arriving from Arizona in a July trade, proving to be the galvanzing force that propelled the Mariners to the doorstep of a first World Series berth. He was deservedly rewarded with a five-year, $92.5 million deal -- team-friendly for sure -- and the fanbase rejoiced. This season however, that same fanbase has become increasingly frustrated with him.

Through his first 15 games of the 2026 campaign Naylor couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat, batting just .102 with an ugly .299 OPS and even more unsightly -8 wRC+. In fairness Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez were also struggling, but it was still extremely concerning to witness. It was also in stark contrast to last season, when he batted .299 with a .831 OPS in 54 games, followed by an even better .340 with a .967 OPS during the playoffs.

Naylor finally seemed to come to life with two home runs against the Astros in his 16th game, and since then he's batting .302 with a .791 OPS and 128 wRC+. And yet, on the season as a whole there are still certain areas which don't look great, including a .351 slugging percentage, .663 OPS and 92 wRC+. One of main things standing out is he's hitting an awful lot of groundouts to the right side of the infield, with his 47 being the fifth-most in the majors.

Some strange moments at first base from Josh Naylor

Also causing plenty of consternation within the Mariners fanbase is Naylor's play at first base. His defensive play has been underwhelming in general, including ranking in the 29th percentile for Range (OAA) and 38th percentile for Arm Strength. And lately he's had some weird moments, including this error during Wednesday's series finale versus the Mets:

As a result, Naylor's overall value is essentially replacement-level, with a fWAR of 0.0 and a bWAR of -0.2. We won't go as far as saying the fanbase has turned on him, especially with memories still fresh of what he did last season, but his honeymoon period is definitely close to breaking point.

The question is, should the Mariners expect more of the same moving forward?

Better to come from Josh Naylor, with perhaps a return to being more grumpy

What fans are seeing at the moment is Naylor's floor. He isn't especially powerful for a first baseman, not a very good defender and has never really been a high-walk guy either. However, what makes him so good usually, is that he's a good energy guy who runs the bases, makes a lot of contact and does things on the margins.

We just don't envision Naylor continuing to play at his current level long-term. The only previous time he was this bad was during his second year in 2020, and that was the year COVID-19 resulted in a shortened campaign which impacted a lot of players negatively. And unlike that season when he only played 40 games, this time around he still has effectively 100 games to rediscover his game.

As mentioned, Naylor's bat has shown more signs of life since mid-April, and we fully expect the rest of his game to round into form as we progress though the 2026 campaign. It probably hasn't helped that so much was expected from him after what he did last season, combined with being the most expensive free agent position player Jerry Dipoto has ever signed in Seattle.

On that point, you do have to wonder if securing his long-term future took some sense of urgency off Naylor's game. Certainly his grumpy persona from last season has been replaced by a much happier-looking demeanor. Maybe it's time to restrict access to his best friend Tucker for a bit, in order to make him cranky again and help rediscover his edge!

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