Mariners' Julio Rodríguez is already starting to creep into the AL MVP race

It's been a strange year so far in Seattle. The Mariners' losing record one-third of the way through the campaign is in stark contrast to the glowing preseason predictions surrounding the ballclub. And yet you might be surprised to discover Julio Rodríguez is among 10 candidates being given odds to for the AL MVP Award.

ESPN released their updated 2026 MLB awards tracker on Tuesday, with Rodríguez named alongside the likes of Aaron Judge (of course), Bobby Witt Jr. and Yordan Alvarez to win AL MVP. Sure his inclusion comes with the caveat that he's currently a long-shot at 30-1, but just the fact he's even on the list should be a source of encouragement for Mariners fans.

We appreciate that Rodríguez has been a trendy preseason pick to win AL MVP these past few years, in large part due to being a five-tool player with a ridiculously high ceiling. In addition he has received AL MVP votes in three of his four previous Major League campaigns, finishing seventh in his rookie year, fourth in 2023 and sixth last season.

Julio Rodríguez just looks better compared to previous starts for the Mariners

Still, to see Rodríguez included in the odds at this stage of the season will be unexpected for some, just based on him traditionally being a slow starter each year. However, the reality is that he's off to good start by his standards:

For clarification, all previous seasons are through the end of May while this season's statistics are up to and including May 25. Still, the evidence remains that Rodríguez is looking good by comparison so far, with May specifically standing out for him this time around:

Now we appreciate that statistics can be manipulated to support any argument. For example, if you include and focus on just fWAR, Rodríguez is having his tied-worst season to date and second-worst May. However, this is more to do with the top-tier center fielder not currently playing defense up to his usual level.

Defense won't ultimately dent AL MVP bid if Julio Rodríguez keeps hitting

Admittedly this is slightly unnerving, but you'd like to think Rodríguez will eventually get back on track in the outfield, just based on his track record and superior arm strength combined with speed. In any event, even average defense will be enough to keep him in AL MVP contention as long as he produces with his bat.

The three-time All-Star just looks more comfortable at the plate now, with the seed planted last season when he started joining Cal Raleigh for pregame drills with hitting coaches Kevin Seitzer and Bobby Magallanes. And following a challenging first 20 games this year, he's effectively doubled his slugging percentage, slimmed his ground-ball rate significantly and is currently projected to have the lowest strikeout rate of his Major League career.

Second-half Rodríguez has always performed at an AL MVP-level, but we've often wondered what a season of wire-to-wire offensive consistency would look like. We'll mention it cautiously because this is still the Mariners after all, but maybe we're finally going to find out and if so, the rest of Major League Baseball is in for a real treat. Or a nightmare, depending on your perspective and allegiance.

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