Julio Rodríguez is inexplicably raining on his own hot-hitting parade for Mariners

May has been a surprisingly hot month for Julio Rodríguez. He has been known to go on hot streaks, but rarely does it occur this early in the season and it seems like it's at least somewhat sustainable. Over the past 28 days, he has a .910 OPS and after his typical slow start, he has already managed to lift his OPS+ to 122.

There were signs of a change in approach towards the end of April and it looks like the adjustments are really paying off. Since he was the best center fielder by fWAR (5.7) last season, one might assume that an offensive resurgence would have him in a similar position for this year. But he currently ranks 10th in fWAR (0.8) at his position.

So, given that his offense is in a great spot, the only thing that could be weighing him down is poor defense. But can it really be that bad?

Julio Rodríguez's lackluster defense has been a meaningful detriment to his value for the Mariners

Although he makes enough dazzling plays in center field to have his section of the outfield lovingly named after him, Julio has never posted elite defensive numbers in center field, at least when it comes to Defensive Runs Saved. Last season was his best year by DRS (9) but it still paled in comparison to the likes of Ceddanne Rafaela (20) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (20). This year, he's already at -6 DRS after just 364.1 innings in the outfield, worse than all primary center fielders other than the Phillies' Justin Crawford.

Outs Above Average, another commonly used defensive metric, often diverges from DRS since the two metrics have completely different derivations and Julio is a prime example. While DRS grades him as a strong but not elite defender, he has placed in the top decile of OAA in each of his big league seasons. Yet he currently has an OAA of -4, placing him in the 4th percentile of qualified players this season.

Part of the reason for these poor results is some costly defensive miscues. In the second game of the Royals series, he allowed what should've been a single by Jac Caglianone slip under his glove, allowing the runner to score from second to tie the game.

Interestingly enough, he made a very similar error in the 2023 World Baseball Classic against Puerto Rico that allowed Francisco Lindor to score an inside-the-park home run.

It should be noted that defensive metrics are known to be notoriously mercurial across seasons and especially in relatively small samples. While figures like DRS and OAA attempt to capture how productive a player has been in the field, they're imperfect. A great illustration of just how erratic defensive metrics can be is Cole Young, who has gone from one of the worst to one of the best second basemen.

On the bright side, Julio is still one of the fastest players in the sport and his arm strength still lands in the top decile, so he should have the tools necessary to get the job done with more time.

Perhaps this year, Julio's early season slump has come in the form of a defensive slump and all he needs is more time. He's not the only starter on the team with subpar fielding production, but he is the one with the biggest gap between expectation and reality. After four full seasons in the big-leagues, it's a known fact that he can pretty much do it all once he fully gets going. Unfortunately, until then, fans will have to settle for the incomplete but still electric version of Seattle's superstar.

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