Mariners have every reason to tread carefully with a Logan Gilbert extension

MLB.com tossing Logan Gilbert into its 2026 extension-candidate bucket makes total sense on paper. He’s an All-Star-caliber starter, he’s eligible for free agency after the 2027 season, and Seattle’s entire identity still runs through pitching development. 

But the Mariners also have every reason to slow-play this, because the “extend your homegrown ace” conversation isn’t happening in a vacuum anymore. Not after 2025 turned into a full-on record scratch for Gilbert.

That’s the part extension lists gloss over. The timing sounds neat — lock him up before the price spikes — until you remember why his price is even a debate right now. Gilbert’s 2025 season was messy enough to spark real talk about what his future looks like, driven largely by how he performed after returning from the injured list with a Grade 1 elbow flexor strain shut him down for almost two months.

Mariners’ fragile extension window with Logan Gilbert feels smaller than it looks

If you’re the Mariners, that’s exactly why you tread carefully. Pitchers break. Even when the news is mild, it’s still the kind of thing teams file away when they’re deciding whether to commit eight or nine figures.

However, the same facts can be used to argue the opposite. Because if Gilbert’s stock took a hit in 2025, this is also the kind of window teams try to exploit — the security pitch before a bounce-back year re-inflates the number. And we already have the blueprint for how Seattle likes to do this. Cal Raleigh was slated for free agency after 2027, and the Mariners still got a six-year, $105 million deal done that buys out three free-agent seasons (plus a vesting option component). 

So if Seattle can get Gilbert on a Raleigh-ish structure, you at least have to listen.

A year ago, Gilbert openly signaled he’d be interested in staying long-term — “Seattle has become like home… I’d love to be able to finish my career here.” The Mariners should take it seriously. But interest isn’t the same as urgency, and Gilbert’s leverage is strong.

The market just got louder with Tarik Skubal’s record-breaking arbitration win. It reinforced a new reality for late-arb starters: if you’re elite (or can credibly argue you’re elite), arbitration is no longer a cute raise. That matters for Gilbert even if he’s not Skubal, because it shifts the entire negotiating mood for top-end pitching.

That’s the sweet spot for Seattle here: don’t bid against yourself.

If Gilbert wants full-market value and he’s healthy, he can get there by simply doing what almost every high-end starter does now — play out the clock to free agency. If the Mariners want to extend him anyway, it has to be on terms that reflect the risks and give Seattle upside: a deal that looks team-friendly if he returns to peak form, but not franchise-altering if 2025 was a warning shot.

The scariest outcome isn’t that they didn’t extend Gilbert. It’s extending Logan Gilbert like you were buying the 2024 version… and got stuck managing the volatility that 2025 introduced.