Logan Gilbert's painful 2025 season must have Mariners rethinking his future

What was supposed to be another year of being a Cy Young Award contender for Logan Gilbert was derailed in late April by injury. Despite the roadblock, there wasn't much cause for concern after he had pitched to a 2.37 ERA and 2.19 FIP up to that point.

However, since he returned to the Seattle Mariners starting rotation in June, it doesn't seem like he has gotten back on track. With months of struggles and no recovery in sight, his future with the franchise is starting to get murkier.

A stretch of rocky performances by Logan Gilbert could tank any chances of him signing an extension in the offseason

At the start of the season, there were talks of a possible long-term contract being offered to Gilbert to delay his free agency. This was after the Mariners signed off on an extension for Cal Raleigh that has, at least in its first year, done wonders for the team.

However, while Raleigh has spent his year chasing history, Gilbert has spent the second half trying to rediscover what made him great to begin with.

In the 12 starts he has made after his time on the injured list, he has posted a 4.55 ERA with a 3.79 FIP. He still managed a strikeout rate of 31.3 percent over this span, but has given up far too much hard contact. Since returning from the injured list, his average exit velocity has been 91.5 mph, one of the highest marks in the league.

This changes the calculus behind a potential long-term deal. The Mariners already have some financial problems to worry about and no money spent will be done so without conviction. Especially for an organization as fiscally conservative as the Mariners, the potential risk of inconsistent performances and further injury risk make a long-term, expensive contract far less appealing.

Prior to this recent snag, Gilbert looked like the ace of the future but if he isn't able to return to pitching scoreless outings of six or more innings, the front office could allow him to walk. He is presently slated for free agency after the 2027 season.

An even more aggressive move would be to trade him while his stock is still high. His external perception plus team control would make him a highly sought-after trade asset, but this would only be done if the team truly felt like they couldn't get any more out of him. With a relatively small sample of mediocre outings and no clear candidate to take his place in the rotation, the Mariners will likely hold onto him for at least another season.

Just one year after it dominated the competition, the rotation has become an apparent vulnerability in 2025. This was illustrated by the team's most recent road trip and part of the problem was Gilbert, who had a brutal outing against the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday. He's by no means the only talented arm that has struggled to put it together this year — George Kirby and Bryce Miller have also had issues — but Gilbert's regression is the most negatively impactful.

Things can change on a dime in baseball. In just a year, the strongest aspect of the Seattle Mariners has become one of the shakiest, and what once looked like the steadiest arm in the rotation is now the biggest question mark.