Mariners have a new fear unlocked after Tarik Skubal's historic arbitration victory

The Mariners didn't really run into any issues this offseason when it came to their arbitration-eligible players. They came to terms with six out of the seven players and the final straggler, Bryce Miller, later agreed on a one-year deal with the team to avoid going to an arbitration hearing.

The Tigers weren't so lucky. They were off by a wide margin when it came to a 2026 salary for Tarik Skubal and the recent arbitration hearing swung in favor of their ace, netting him a record-setting $32 million salary for next season.

At first, this seems like solely an issue for Detroit. But because of the context around the situation and the new precedent it may set for starting pitchers in their final years of club control, it could have downstream effects for other teams with marquee talent in their rotation slowly headed for free agency. Sound familiar?

Tarik Skubal's landmark arbitration case could drive up the price needed to retain Seattle's best starting pitchers

By 2030, everyone in the current Mariners rotation will hit free agency, barring any extensions. Logan Gilbert will be the first to go in 2028 and is coming up on his final arbitration year in 2027. He'll earn just under $11 million next year, already giving him one of the biggest deals in this year's negotiations. For context, Skubal earned just $10.15 million last year. Assuming his 2026 numbers are consistent with what he's done throughout his entire big league career, it wouldn't be surprising to see him push $20 million next offseason.

Although they have less service time, this could also make George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo less affordable, increasing the cost to maintain this gifted rotation exponentially. Even in down years by their standards, Kirby and the Mariners agreed on a salary of $6.55 million while Miller agreed to $2.125 million. Bryan Woo will have his first year of arbitration in 2027, and as the arm with arguably the most upside, his salary could quickly swell out of control.

This leaves the front office with a few decisions. Their first option is to take the financial hit and get as much on-field value as they can out of these players. However, given the organization's propensity to spend (or lack thereof), this is the least likely option.

The second option is to get ahead of the curve and get their young players on extensions. It's a strategy that more frugal teams like the Rays, Brewers, and Guardians typically exercise to prevent market demand pushing up the tag on their most valued names. For the players, it provides more financial certainty in the immediate since plenty of things can go wrong before they ever make it to the market.

A Logan Gilbert extension was being discussed last February and Seattle has shown a penchant for extending their homegrown position players like Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez. They haven't demonstrated the same enthusiasm for their pitchers, but also haven't developed an elite class of pitchers until now.

The final option is to simply trade away their pricier big league talent for cheaper, younger players. For cynical fans, this may seem like the most probable outcome, but the Mariners have changed their tune, this winter especially. They may not have increased payroll by much, but they have been more aggressive this offseason than in recent years, committing nearly $100 million to Josh Naylor and moving several Top 30 prospects to bolster their major league lineup.

To add to the complexity of it all, a 2027 labor stoppage seems more and more likely with each passing day, especially as situations like Skubal's recent victory could push owners to demand a more financially punishing CBA. Mariners ownership could be waiting for more clarity on the situation before moving forward with extension talks.

The downside of having such rich talent on a big league roster is that it costs a pretty penny. Seattle has had the privilege of getting the best out of their players' early career years, but as their salaries continue to rise, they may have to make some tough choices.

Nonetheless, it's a good problem to have — other organizations can only aspire to have this much potential. But will they continue to ride this wave of success or bail out in favor of safer waters?