Mariners fans' expectations got a $100 million reality check 1 day into GM Meetings

The GM Meetings are underway in Las Vegas, and the tone has already shifted to what Seattle Mariners fans should not expect to happen. A Ronald Acuña Jr. trade? Yeah, right. A big-ticket free agent signing? Oh, please.

That's the gist one gets from reading the latest from Adam Jude of The Seattle Times, which takes a turn after stating that the Mariners are "motivated" to add to their roster before the MLB lockout hits on December 1. The article largely concerns what won't or is unlikely to happen, with an obvious non-pursuit of Tarik Skubal representing just the first step.

"They might not even be comfortable approaching a $100 million figure for a free agent this winter," writes Jude about the Mariners' intentions. Even if he wasn't seemingly intent on returning to the East Coast, that almost certainly rules out Randy Arozarena. It could also rule out Seiya Suzuki, which is the really big blow here.

Suzuki to the Mariners has been a semi-popular prediction, with notable votes coming from MLB Trade Rumors and Paul Hembekides of ESPN. There's nothing wrong with the fit on paper. Indeed, there's a lot right with it. But that idea is based on an assumption that the Mariners want nice things and are willing to pay for them. Perhaps it was inevitable that hope would run into reality.

The Mariners seem determined to die on the hill of extreme risk-aversion

The John Stanton-Jerry Dipoto regime has been in place for a decade now, and Robbie Ray remains its only nine-figure splash in free agency. The only other time the Mariners have come close was last winter, when they signed Josh Naylor for $92.5 million. Both he and Ray were in their 20s at the time of their respective deals, which is that much more relevant after Stanton expressed (in no uncertain terms) his distaste for big-money contracts for players in their 30s.

Arozarena is 31 years, 255 days. Suzuki is 32 years, 84 days. Both are projected to land in the $100 million range with their next contracts. Per Stanton's math, the two of them might as well have a scarlet letter N for "Nope."

Since he's still only 27, it's Teruaki Sato who represents the Mariners' best chance at the "splash" they're said to be interested in. But even if the Mariners like him, they're going to be at the mercy of the market. If MLBTR's $80 million valuation is accurate, there's a chance. But then you have Jim Bowden of The Athletic floating a five-year, $140 million contract. That's not happening.

To be fair, it was just last week that Dipoto did an interview with Teren Kowatsch of Roundtable Sports in which he acknowledged that the Mariners A) want to add to the bullpen and B) are looking for one or two bats. It'll do for confirmation that this is not going to be a quiet winter.

And yet, that the Mariners cut themselves off from the high end of the free agent market toes that line between a darn shame and a darn outrage. It's obviously a good idea to weigh risk along with reward, but this team simply has no business being this afraid of risk.

The Mariners obviously aren't the Dodgers, Mets or Yankees, but the things Stanton says about payroll don't land for a reason. Sure, it's nice that he's raised payroll five years in a row. But even if all he had done (h/t Aaron Levine of FOX 13) was raise payroll according to inflation, the $160.8 million payroll that Stanton greenlit back in 2017 would have been worth $220 million in 2026. The Mariners only actually spent $167.9 million.

That the Mariners have been and still project to be a contender is the good news. How much they already have and might still miss out on is the question that looms large nonetheless.

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