Shockingly bullish 2027 Mariners projection obscures how much work must be done

As currently constructed, the Seattle Mariners are the third-best team in Major League Baseball. It's not an opinion. It's a fact… sort of.

The reference here is to a recent piece from MLB.com's Mike Petriello that touches on FanGraphs' WAR projections for the 2027 season. The Mariners' roster (46.4) projects as the third-strongest behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (52.0) and New York Yankees (47.3). Take that, disappointing 76-86 2026 season.

One can come close to taking these projections at face value. The 2026 season was a perfect storm of suckiness that isn't likely to repeat itself in 2027. Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and Josh Naylor can only be better. So can a pitching staff that is still full of electric arms. And the new coaching staff? Looking pretty good.

When looking more closely at FanGraphs' projections, though, it is surprisingly the offense that is carrying the freight. It projects for 27.4 WAR, tied for the third-most of any position player group. The pitching staff is sixth with a projection for 19.0 WAR.

That doesn't really fly in two ways. For one, Mariners hitters ranked 24th in rWAR and 22nd in fWAR this season. For two, that was with Randy Arozarena and J.P. Crawford. They're both free agents now, which reinforces what Petriello sees as Seattle's key areas of need: left field, right field, shortstop.

Mariners can't afford to take their bullish projections' word for how good they'll be in 2027

When looking even more closely at what FanGraphs' likes about Seattle's position player group, the good stuff passes the smell test easily enough. Even without Arozarena and Crawford in the mix, six players are projected to produce at least 2 fWAR. That's two more than did so this season.

Yet there are, of course, lingering uncertainties pertaining even to that group. Raleigh and Naylor are both coming off surgery. Julio now comes with increasingly prevalent questions about his plate discipline and his defense. Brendan Donovan has had injury issues in each of the last two seasons, and he isn't getting younger.

It's conversations like these that raise questions about how deep this Mariners offense goes, and that's where still more uncertainties arise.

Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes, Michael Arroyo and Luke Raley all project for the 1-WAR range in 2027, and even that can be seen as generous. Emerson had a rough rookie year and is coming off wrist surgery, while Arroyo just had elbow surgery in his own right. Raley is still another guy who had season-ending surgery this year, and is now a potential non-tender candidate. Montes, meanwhile, is as boom-or-bust as they come.

Given all this, some sort of offseason splash should be on the menu for Jerry Dipoto. There are indications that he understands as much, and he has options even if a reunion with Arozarena likely isn't one of them. To name a couple, Teruaki Sato and Seiya Suzuki are potentially in Seattle's price range.

At the same time, Dipoto has publicly expressed confidence in the current roster as being "pretty complete." Hopefully, that's him keeping his cards close to the vest. Yet given his and John Stanton's track record of risk-aversion on the offseason market, you can't help but wonder if he means it.

One hopes not. How this team projects for 2027 is nice and all, and you can indeed see the logic. But there's a difference between that and trusting the current roster, and a year like this one has surely given all of us trust issues.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow