Mariners' 2026 arbitration projections trigger fears of another salary dump

The Mariners will have to give a few of their stars significant pay raises in 2026, according to new arbitration estimates from MLB Trade Rumors.

Randy Arozarena will unsurprisingly have the highest price tag, at $18.2 million. The outfielder has one more year until he reaches free agency, and that's a significant raise on the $11.3 million he made this season.

Also getting significant raises are Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. Gilbert is projected to get $10 million, Kirby projected to get $5.4 million. They earned $7.63 and $4.3 million this season, respectively.

That is not to mention Cal Raleigh, who is slated to get a $10 million raise, per the contract extension he signed with the Mariners in March.

The Mariners may have to trim some big salaries from their payroll this winter

With so many players due to see big raises, it will leave the Mariners again having to figure out how they want to manage their checkbook. Could they make another salary dump trade, to free up money for free agency?

They are currently set to lose their starting second baseman, first baseman, and third baseman in free agency. While they could simply promote Cole Young, Ben Williamson, and Luke Raley back into the starting lineup, it feels like the M's should at least target one bat in free agency, wether it's to bring someone back, or to target a bigger fish such as Pete Alonso or Kyle Tucker.

If the Mariners do look to make a salary dump move, Arozarena would make the most sense from a money-savings perspective. He's owed the most money, and could probably be replaced with a younger outfielder. In fact, Seattle could just go into 2026 with an outfield of Julio Rodríguez, Victor Robles, Dominic Canzone, and Raley.

Trading Arozarena would also probably leave problems with the fanbase. Last time the Mariners salary-dumped a player, it angered fans. The trade in question, which sent Eugenio Suárez to Arizona in 2023, turned out to be horrible deal for Seattle, and the Mariners wound up trading back with Arizona to bring Suárez back to Seattle. They'd want to avoid a similar scenario with Arozarena.

From a value perspective, the best choice would be to trade Kirby. He still has three years of club control, and is one of the best young arms in the league. Trading him would likely bring the Mariners back a haul of prospects, or they could choose to trade him for a young bat that could fill one of their holes. However, that would only save them $5.4 million, and it would weaken their rotation.

However, they'd still have Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Logan Evans, and Emerson Hancock. Theoretically, Evans and Hancock can hold down the fifth spot in their rotation until a prospect like No. 3 draft pick Kade Anderson, Jurrangelo Cijntje or Ryan Sloan is ready.

The bottom line is that Seattle does have the ability to be flexible this offseason. But at the end of the day, they will either have to increase their spending budget or make hard decisions about who to keep.