Mariners’ projected 2026 roster shows how desperately they need a big offseason

If 2025 taught the Seattle Mariners anything, it’s that getting to October can make a roster look sturdier than it really is. The Mariners’ late-season run proved the core can carry weight, but it also highlighted thin spots. To turn momentum into staying power in 2026, Seattle needs more impact bats and a higher everyday floor.

That’s why 2026 feels like a line in the sand. The core of Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, and J.P. Crawford, who is entering a contract year, has proved it can anchor a contender. What’s unsettled is everything around them. With Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suárez, and Jorge Polanco, who holds a $6 million player option, all headed for free agency, the Mariners either need to retain impact offense or replace it with equal or better production. There’s no middle path. A measured, small-moves winter risks turning a deep run into a one-off memory instead of a launch point.

Mariners’ projected lineup underscores the need for impact bats

Look at FanGraphs’ rough outline of the current 2026 projection and you can see the stakes:

1. SS J.P. Crawford
2. CF Julio Rodríguez
3. C Cal Raleigh
4. LF Randy Arozarena
5. DH Dominic Canzone
6. RF Victor Robles
7. 1B Luke Raley
8. 2B Leo Rivas
9. 3B Ben Williamson

The bench mix mentions Miles Mastrobuoni, Ryan Bliss, and Samad Taylor. On paper, the top three still play — table-setter, superstar engine, switch-hitting thumper — but the middle and bottom get thin in a hurry if those pending free agents walk.

There are two ways to read that starting nine. The optimistic read says a few smart adds let you live with a glove-first third baseman like Ben Williamson, because defense matters and run prevention travels. It also says second base probably belongs to Cole Young sooner than later, which helps the floor and the future. The pessimistic read? That corner production dries up, the outfield defense carries more than its share, and you’re left crossing fingers that role players punch above their weight for six months.

Even the individual pieces carry questions. Canzone fits best in a true DH platoon with a right-handed masher who punishes velocity. Robles stabilizes the outfield defense, but doesn’t move the run-expectancy needle unless he’s the ninth-best bat in a loaded lineup. Raley plays up with protection, but without it, pitchers will challenge him more aggressively. Arozarena brings urgency and edge in left, but he’s extremely streaky on both sides of the ball. This group needs multiple lanes to offense, not just one new headline.

Which brings us back to the departing trio. Letting all of Naylor, Suárez, and Polanco walk without landing an equivalent impact would be malpractice in a championship window. Bringing back one, particularly a middle-of-the-order run producer, changes the math. Replacing the other two with a combination of a right-handed DH/1B bat, a contact-forward infielder who punishes mistakes, and a high-OBP outfielder turns the projection from “just enough” into “actually dangerous.”

There’s also a sequencing angle the Mariners can control. Strike early on at least one middle-order bat so the rest of the market knows Seattle is serious. Then layer in fit-forward moves: a third baseman you trust to pick it and hit 20 homers and a second base plan that accelerates Young without burying him. If you build in redundancy now, you’re not shopping for lineup oxygen on July 28.

The worst-case scenario is obvious because we’ve lived versions of it: a quiet winter framed as “value,” a couple of depth adds that look tidy on paper, and a spring storyline about internal growth solving external problems. That’s how you end up needing a Polanco-sized jolt at the eleventh hour, and there might not be one waiting this time. The best-case scenario is just as clear. Spend prospect capital or dollars (preferably both) on two impact sticks, set a real floor at third and second, and let the rotation and bullpen do what they do best with a margin for error.

The projection is a flashing dashboard light, not a doomsday prophecy. It’s a reminder of how close Seattle is, and how fragile “close” can be without real investment. Prioritize acquiring run creators, and choose certainty over vibes at the infield corners. Do that, and the 2026 Mariners aren’t hoping to recreate magic; they’re built to manufacture it.