Logan Gilbert isn't wrong about his Mariners ERA projection for 2026

Logan Gilbert didn’t even let the question breathe.

When Brock Huard and Mike Salk floated an ERA projection of 3.20 for Gilbert in 2026, Gilbert’s first instinct was that they were talking about his 2025 season — and he reacted like, why are we even debating this? Once he realized they weren’t quizzing him on last year’s numbers, he delivered the line that matters: “Oh, they better say under.”

He’s not wrong to talk like that, not when you consider the kind of pitcher he is.

Let’s start with the surface-level stuff: Gilbert posted a 3.44 ERA in 2025 across 25 starts. That’s already the kind of baseline that makes you a headache for the AL West.

Mariners’ Logan Gilbert delivered a cold message about his 2026 outlook

But it’s also not hard to see why Gilbert hears “3.20” and thinks, yeah… and? In 2024 he put up a 3.23 ERA over a full season workload.  And early in 2025, before the forearm tightness derailed his rhythm, he was pitching like a guy who was about to make the whole “Mariners don’t have a true ace” take look silly. He entered that start with a 2.63 ERA, threw three perfect innings, and Seattle yanked him after just 29 pitches because they weren’t messing around with his arm. 

That’s the part projections can’t fully capture: Gilbert’s “normal” isn’t fragile. It’s repeatable dominance. And when it’s on, it comes with that specific brand of suffocating efficiency that makes opposing lineups start pressing by the fourth inning.

Also… have you seen the spring version? Mariner Muse noted Gilbert was sitting 97 mph with the four-seamer in those early innings. 

Then there’s the delivery note. Daniel Kramer reported Gilbert said he made a “tertiary tweak” to his delivery and rolled it out in game action for the first time. But the bigger point is the most Gilbert point imaginable: he’s still tinkering. He’s still chasing cleaner movement patterns, better timing, better command — not because he’s broken, but because he’s greedy.

And that’s why the “under 3.20” confidence comes off like a guy who knows exactly what his stuff looks like when it’s synced up… and knows the Mariners are going to need that version of him if they want October to feel like an expectation instead of a hope.

Logan Gilbert saying “they better say under” isn’t a flex. It’s a reminder. If he’s healthy, if the tweak sticks, and if that splitter keeps doing crimes? A 3.20 isn’t ambitious — it’s a reasonable target.