Mariners' latest devastating injury creates huge stakes for Logan Gilbert's return

A Seattle Mariners starting rotation that was the envy of MLB in 2024 continues to be a snakebit mess in 2025. It has been short-handed all year, and so it still goes after the team revealed on Monday that Bryce Miller is going back on the injured list.

The 26-year-old right-hander was sidelined for about three weeks throughout his first IL stint, which came about because of inflammation in his elbow. To this end, history is repeating itself.

“It’s the same issue as he had the last time. The cortisone shot wasn’t as helpful as we had hoped,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said after an 8-4 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday, as per Tim Booth of The Seattle Times.

Frankly, it's hard to be optimistic about Miller's outlook. He had hinted that his underlying issue (i.e., a bone spur) couldn't be resolved without surgery. As rest didn't do the trick of healing his elbow, going under the knife frankly should be on the table.

For the meantime, the Mariners can hold out hope that Miller's spot in the rotation will actually be upgraded. His spot is being taken by rookie righty Logan Evans, whose eight-inning gem on May 27 capped a six-start stretch in which he had a 2.83 ERA. Miller owns a 5.73 ERA in 10 starts.

The stakes for Logan Gilbert's return off the IL just got higher

The Logan who really matters here, however, is Logan Gilbert. He needs to be the guy who rescues Seattle's rotation from its ongoing chaos, and he needs to do it sooner rather than later.

The good news is that his own IL stint should be over soon. He's been sidelined since April 25 with a flexor strain in his right forearm, but he's already made two rehab outings for Triple-A Tacoma and is set for his third on Tuesday. If all goes well, he could be back for next week's six-game home stand.

Hopes for Gilbert's return should be high. This is the same Logan Gilbert who led the majors in innings and WHIP in 2024 and who had been even better at the outset of 2025. He faced 117 batters in his first six starts and permitted only 18 hits and six walks against 44 strikeouts.

And yet, it hasn't been all smooth sailing for the 28-year-old during his rehab assignment. He has faced 25 batters and fanned only five of them, otherwise allowing seven hits and three walks. Just as notably, his fastball sustained a velocity decline his last time out on June 4.

Even if Gilbert can operate with less velo on his fastball, it would invariably mean a smaller margin for error. And if he throws his unhittable splitter less often as a means to keep his arm healthy, said margin will only get smaller.

As much as we're trying not to think of worst-case scenarios, there's also this note on Gilbert courtesy of Eno Sarris of The Athletic: "But flexor strains are tricky. They have been shown to be a precursor to more devastating elbow injuries in peer-reviewed studies in the past, so it's no minor thing."

Despite the high hopes, it is thus hard to know what to expect from Gilbert going forward. Which is a shame, because the Mariners badly need more reliability in their rotation. After ranking first with a 3.38 ERA in 2024, it ranks 19th with a 4.01 ERA in 2025.

Ideally, Gilbert will have no trouble sliding back into his role as a No. 1, in which case Seattle's rotation may well find its groove again. George Kirby is already trending up after his 14-strikeout gem on Sunday. Luis Castillo and Bryan Woo have been pitching well all year, and Evans and Emerson Hancock have been much better fill-ins than expected.

In this scenario, the Mariners will have a pathway to be buyers ahead of the July 31 trade deadline. It may indeed be their only pathway, as ESPN's Jeff Passan offered this take on "Brock and Salk" last week: "I think until they have a better sense of what their pitching staff really looks like in this present moment, that we can’t know just how aggressive the Mariners are going to be.”

As it is, the Mariners are already slipping. At 33-32, they're one loss away from being a mere .500 team. FanGraphs has their playoff odds at basically 50-50, with the Houston Astros positioned as a 60.7 percent favorite to win the AL West.

Whatever comeback the Mariners author will have to be in two parts, with Gilbert starting it off with his own strong comeback and the rest of the team following suit. If he's not up to it, then the 2025 season could be over well before the Mariners get to game No. 162.