How Mariners can still trim 2027 payroll after declining Bryce Miller, Victor Robles

The World Series ended on Wednesday, making Thursday the day for everyone else in MLB to get to work on the offseason. The Seattle Mariners got down to business by declining contract options for 2027 on Bryce Miller and Victor Robles.

The Robles move had long been expected, as there simply wasn't an argument in favor of paying him $9 million over a $500,000 buyout. His late-season surge in 2024 was nice, but then came injuries and -0.3 rWAR across 2025 and 2026. Thanks for you service, Vic. Good luck out there in free agency.

The Miller decision was just cold, hard business. The Mariners held a $6.075 million option on him for 2027, which is more than a decent rate for the good Miller. Alas, the Mariners have too often gotten injured or bad Miller over the last two seasons, resulting in a 4.82 ERA over 209 innings.

The 28-year-old Miller is not a free agent, but rather eligible for arbitration for three more seasons still. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn $3.9 million in 2027, so the team potentially saved a little over $2 million by declining the righty's option.

Where the Mariners' 2027 payroll stands after contract option decisions and free agency filings

Also on Thursday, four Mariners officially filed for free agency: Randy Arozarena, J.P. Crawford, Hoby Milner and Taylor Ward. This is more business-as-usual stuff for the first day after the World Series, but it's still notable.

And now, have the skeleton upon which the Mariners will build their 2027 roster. Between its actual salaries and projected arbitration salaries, the payroll works out to a hair under $131 million. Adding in incentives, money still owed on signing bonuses and other expenses, RosterResource has the actual expense for the 2027 payroll at $143.3 million.

That's compared to an estimated final payroll of $164 million for 2026, and we can take it from Adam Jude of The Seattle Times that the 2027 payroll will stay in more or less the same ballpark.

Assuming all this is accurate, it would put the Mariners' offseason budget for new salaries in the $20-25 million range. It's a decent chunk of change, but more would be better if they're going to pursue (just go with us on this one) big targets like Teruaki Sato or Adrian Morejon.

The Mariners still have 2 ways to cut costs on their 2027 payroll

Thankfully, Jerry Dipoto doesn't need to see his current budget as a mandate. There are still ways to trim fat and even slice of bigger cuts of meat, if he's so inclined.

1. Make some non-tenders

With Miller now back on the pile, the Mariners have 15 players who are eligible for arbitration. That's the most of any team in MLB, but the thing about arbitration-eligible players is that teams are not obligated to tender them contracts. This year, the deadline for making these decisions falls on November 20.

These players in particular (and their projected contracts) are potentially on the chopping block:

• Luke Raley: $3.1 million
• Patrick Wisdom: $1.1 million
• Michael Rucker: $800,000

As a journeyman who only got into 19 games with the Mariners this year, Wisdom is the most likely goner. Rucker's projected salary is hardly exorbitant, yet he's still another journeyman who had a 5.56 ERA in 37 appearances for the majors.

Raley's fate is more like a toss-up, but the Mariners may well determine that $3.1 million is too much for a guy who hasn't given them much over the last two seasons. The 31-year-old outfielder has been limited by injuries to just 168 games, and posted -0.3 rWAR when he has been healthy.

2. Make some trades

Knowing that Dipoto got rid of the Robinson Canó and Robbie Ray contracts as soon as they went bad, might he do the same with the remainder of Josh Naylor's five-year, $92.5 million deal? It's a long shot, but nobody should be ruling it out.

It's more likely that Dipoto would look to trade from the rotation surplus. To this end, the most payroll relief would come from trading one of these four arbitration-eligible starters:

• Logan Gilbert: $15.4 million
• George Kirby: $9.8 million
• Bryan Woo: $5.2 million
• Bryce Miller: $3.9 million

Kirby is (rightfully) seen by MLB Trade Rumors as the most likely of these four to go, and it bears noting that he has another year of arbitration-eligibility after 2027. Next year is Gilbert's last year before free agency, and both that and his projected salary limit his value. Then again, he's also the only one of this foursome who is actually coming off a strong season.

"We'll see what happens" is the boring way to end this thing, but it's also the truth. Thursday was merely Day 1 of the offseason. Even setting aside the potential lockout, there are still many more days to come.

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