Early Adrian Morejon contract projections point to 2 can't-miss paths for Mariners

We all watched in horror as the Seattle Mariners' bullpen devolved throughout the course of 2026, culminating in a second half with a 5.69 ERA. It's enough to make one look in the direction of Adrian Morejon and shout, "Save us!"

There's a non-zero chance that he will, at least to the extent that the All-Star left-hander is about to become a free agent. He's going to have plenty of teams in on him after a three-year run with the San Diego Padres consisting of a 161 ERA+, 1.088 WHIP and 2.46 FIP.

Any pursuit of Morejon by the Mariners will, of course, be influenced by the strength of his market. We're now starting to get some early projections, and two stand out as painting wildly different pictures for what the 27-year-old lefty is in for. Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter has him down for five years, $90 million. Jim Bowden of The Athletic doesn't even go half that far at three years, $42 million.

The latter feels too conservative, but not to an extent that it should be laughed out of town. The most direct comp for Morejon's market is Tanner Scott's from a couple years ago, and the early returns on his four-year, $72 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers are a mixed bag. The lack of consistency could inspire unease about repeating the experiment with Morejon.

Should that prove to be the case, the Mariners getting in at three years for $14 million per year is an easy sell.

Yeah, there'd be risk. But after what happened in 2026, the potential reward of him stabilizing the bullpen would be worth it. He could be both partner in crime and insurance option for Andrés Muñoz, as well as a lefty who misses bats better than Gabe Speier and Jose A. Ferrer. And besides, $14 million isn't even half the likely budget the Mariners have for new salaries this winter.

The twist that could take Adrian Morejon's free agent market out of the Mariners' comfort zone

Then again, that Josh Hader's five-year, $95 million contract A) exists and B) has been a good investment for the Houston Astros lends credence to the more aggressive projection for Morejon's market. And since $90 million is basically what the Mariners are paying Josh Naylor, any market that pushes Morejon's earning power in that direction is one the Mariners simply don't belong in.

Quite indeed, it's possible that even those who really like Morejon are underrating him. FanGraphs' Pitching+ model rated him as the best relief pitcher of 2026. Better than Mason Miller. Better than Jhoan Duran. Better than Louis Varland. That's how good he is as a reliever, at least in theory.

Also: Who says a team must sign Morejon as a relief pitcher? If a team is willing to offer him a bunch of money but really wants to get its money's worth, he could perhaps be signed as a starter.

Converting relievers into starters has been a trend recently, with notable successes including Reynaldo López and Clay Holmes. Jarrett Seidler of Baseball Prospectus likes Morejon as a candidate for the same treatment, and we're inclined to agree. Whereas most relievers have two pitches, Morejon has four. He also throws strikes. And with 224 pounds on a 5-foot-11 frame, he's built sturdy enough for a bigger workload.

Either way, the best guess is that Morejon's market will drift toward the higher end of whatever contract projections are attached to him. There might be the odd rumor here and there about the Mariners being "interested," but don't expect a union unless the market gives the lefty an unexpectedly cold shoulder.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow