Mariners may need insurance after picking up Andrés Muñoz's no-brainer $9M option

Since he came over to Seattle from San Diego, Andrés Muñoz has been remarkably consistent. From 2022 to 2025, he posted a 2.29 ERA with a 2.61 FIP over 235.2 innings. Of pitchers with at least 230 innings over that stretch, only Emmanuel Clase (1.99) and Jason Adam (2.07) were better at limiting earned runs. Despite frequently pitching in high-leverage situations, he had found a way to be one of the most reliable arms in Seattle's bullpen.

Which is what made his 2026 so uncharacteristic. After a few bad outings to start the year, including one that saw him give up five earned runs to the Padres in just 0.2 innings, Muñoz never seemed like he got comfortable this year. In June, he talked about losing the feel for his slider, a major issue since it has been the most effective pitch in his arsenal, and despite finishing the year with elite chase, whiff, and strikeout rates, his penchant for giving up loud contact limited him to a 4.24 ERA over 57.1 innings.

Since last season was an anomaly, his $9 million club option will more than likely be exercised, bringing him back to the Mariners for another year. However, will the team be concerned about his run prevention moving forward and more importantly, are they worried enough to acquire an understudy this winter?

Questions regarding regression from Muñoz could push the Mariners to pick up another high-leverage reliever

This year's free agent class isn't the strongest, but it does have some potentially enticing bullpen arms for Seattle to pursue. The aforementioned Jason Adam had an outstanding tenure with the Padres and bounced back nicely after missing much of the year due to quad surgery. His teammate Adrián Morejón would give the Mariners a superior southpaw option to Jose A. Ferrer. David Bednar has fully returned to form and accumulated 35 saves for the Yankees last year.

If Seattle is more interested in using their prospect capital to drive a big trade, they could take a swing at the Brewers' Trevor Megill, who may be the most underrated closer in baseball. Similarly, the Tampa Bay Rays have a plethora of controllable arms like Kevin Killy and Bryan Baker who the Mariners could try to pry away. After all, the two franchises have done quite a bit of business in the past few years.

But all of this hinges on whether the Mariners even think Muñoz will struggle again next year. Based on a few important metrics, 2026 may have truly been a blip on the radar. As pointed out by MLB Trade Rumors in their analysis of his option, there were a lot of unfortunate circumstances that combined to result in a seemingly poor season.

Opposing hitters had a BABIP of .316 against him, comfortably above league-average. He also had a FIP of just 3.34, a figure within his career norms and nearly a full run lower than his ERA. More importantly, his SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) further suggests that he may have gotten the short end of the stick more often than not. In essence, SIERA is an advancement of FIP because it seeks to reward pitchers who also induce soft contact. Muñoz had a ground ball rate of 50.8% last year and his SIERA of 2.41 was 6th in MLB, on par with elite relievers like Tanner Scott (2.41) and Louis Varland (2.46).

Furthermore, though the team's pitching was far from perfect, the offense was a far more glaring issue last year and it should be a much higher priority this winter, especially when it comes to targeting right-handed hitting. Sure, it'd be nice to have a "super bullpen" like the one San Diego had, but on a team with limited spots and an even more limited budget, is it really worth allocating more resources to a position where they'd only see a marginal gain? Probably not.

The back of the bullpen is something the front office is looking to reinforce but mostly due to the injury questions surrounding Matt Brash and Muñoz's backups instead of Muñoz himself. In the volatile world of relief pitching, blips happen. Sometimes they last a week, sometimes they last a whole season. For now, it seems a little too early for Seattle to hit the panic button on their trusty closer but that doesn't mean their finger isn't starting to hover over it.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow