Mariners must not learn wrong payroll lesson from Rays-Brewers World Series

At the risk of sounding like we're talking on behalf of the Mariners fanbase, the majority perceive that ownership just doesn't want to invest the necessary funds to improve the product on the field. And the fear is that John Stanton and company will feel increasingly justified in maintaining this mindset after seeing two small-market teams advance to this year's World Series. A fear that has now been given more life after comments from former MLB general manager Jim Bowden, who now writes for The Athletic.

Bowden made an appearance on Foul Territory on Monday, when he talked about the impact of the Brewers and Rays playing in the Fall Classic: " Two general managers told me the owners are saying that if Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa can do it, there's no reason we have to increase our payroll."

Even more concerning, these two general managers have contemplated actually lowering their respective payrolls, pending a potential salary floor being implemented into the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.

While there's no indication of which two teams Bowden is referencing, we pretty much already know that Mariners' payroll is expected to remain about the same next year. As in, not go higher. During a Q&A with Adam Jude of The Seattle Times at the end of last month, Stanton said the preference is to invest in players they draft and extend contracts while they're still in their 20s, as opposed to signing stars and paying them more to play through their 30s.

Almost doing the opposite of doing what's necessary to help the Mariners return to the playoffs

Certainly this reluctance to spend more is frustrating, especially following arguably the most disappointing season in 50 years of Mariners baseball. At the same time though, it does track with how things have gone in the last five years in Seattle, with the payroll jumps being biggest after playoff berths. (Which seems crazy in respect of almost hindering attempts to bounce back from a campaign without postseason baseball, by not increasing payroll as much.)

• Post-2022: +32.3% change
• Post-2023: +1.6% change
• Post-2024: +4.5% change
• Post-2025: +10.9% change

During his Q&A with Jude, Stanton said his job wasn't to judge any negativity about ownership and their financial commitment as fair or unfair. However, he did state payroll had increased in each of the past five years. In addition, it should be noted this past season's Opening Dy payroll was the highest in franchise history.

The problem is though, that it's about how these financial figures are framed. As we noted at the time, Aaron Levine of FOX 13 did a tremendous job of providing context, including the reality that this year's payroll of $167.9 million was only $7.1 million more than in 2017. More damning was when inflation was brought into the equation, with the 2017 payroll translating to $220 million today, meaning $52 million more than what the Mariners spent in 2026.

The Mariners are playing a dangerous game if they take the Brewers' financial approach

To reiterate, there's no indication as to which two general managers Bowden was referencing. However, would Mariners fans actually be surprised if Stanton and the rest of the ownership group used the Brewers and Rays' success as justification to lower payroll? We hate that we're even thinking the M's could be capable of this, but we also wouldn't rule anything out.

If the Mariners did end up taking this approach -- again pending how things play out with the upcoming CBA negotiations -- they'd be risking mistaking a fluke for a trend.

Payroll and wins tend to be closely, if not always, linked. A small-market team has wasn't the World Series since 2015, and while the streak will end this year, once a decade is not a good hit rate. As per Andy McCullough of The Athletic, a team with a top-10 payroll has won five of the past six championships. Further, the Dodgers haven't missed the playoffs since 2013, while the Yankees have qualified in seven of the past eight years.

The message to the Mariners should be clear, that they need to spend more money rather than less. They just don't have the luxury or the resume to go down a similar financial path as the Brewers or Rays.

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