Fresh Josh Naylor contract projection could crush hopes of a Mariners reunion

Ordinarily, seeing a trade deadline acquisition help lead his new team to their first ALCS in over 20 years would only be a good thing. Josh Naylor was one of the best players on the Mariners in the final months of the regular season, and then posted a .967 OPS over 51 playoff plate appearances.

Unfortunately, his scorching finish to the year may end up being a double-edged sword for Seattle.

Josh Naylor is now projected to be one of the premier free agent targets this winter

Bringing Naylor back is one of the Mariners' top priorities this offseason, but they're not going to be the only team interested in his services. Thus, some are estimating that he'll earn anywhere from $90 million over four years to $120 million over six years. Even in the lower end of this range, it may be too much of a financial risk for Seattle to take, especially since they've had mixed results with spending big on non-homegrown talent. Additionally, those who were developed outside the system who were fortunate enough to receive big-money deals in recent years have been pitchers, like Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo.

There are a couple of factors that have allowed this to happen. First, there's a lack of quality talent at first base. Other than Pete Alonso, Naylor is the only player with demonstrated upside that's currently on the market. Second, since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed his extension worth half a billion dollars, the market for great first basemen seems to have been inflated accordingly.

Naylor wouldn't be the only corner infielder target for the Mariners who'sprojected to net a nine-figure contract, but he's probably the most important. Assuming the money is relatively similar across the board, he did seem to enjoy playing in Seattle and was undoubtedly a fan favorite, but that still makes for a big assumption that the Mariners are the favorite to sign him. There are plenty of organizations with deeper pockets that have similar needs. And despite the Mariners alleging that payroll will increase in 2026, it might still not be enough to be financially competitive. Furthermore, they have other infield problems to deal with more immediately.

By no means do these estimates — however accurate they end up being — completely eliminate Seattle's chances of reuniting with Josh Naylor, but it demonstrates how much they'll have to put up if they want him back. The aggression of the Mariners' front office at the trade deadline is what brought the two parties together in the first place. They'll need to tap into that same energy and enthusiasm if they want to keep him around for the long haul.