Mariners are staring down a tricky qualifying offer dilemma with postseason hero

If you’re the Seattle Mariners, the postseason glow around Jorge Polanco is still warm enough to light a room. He stacked go-ahead hits in three straight playoff games, homered off premium arms, and authored one of the franchise’s signature October moments: the walk-off in that 15-inning ALDS epic, all while reminding everyone why switch-hitters with thunder in both hands get paid. It’s exactly the kind of October heater that tempts a front office into bold, expensive bets. And in this case, the bold bet could be a qualifying offer. 

On paper, the call looks simple: reward your hottest postseason bat, protect yourself with a draft pick if he signs elsewhere, and dare the market to beat your one-year price. But the context is louder than the narrative. MLB.com’s QO preview flat-out questions whether Seattle should do it, noting Polanco’s wildly uneven regular season, last winter’s decision to decline his $12 million option before re-signing him for $7.75 million, and the likelihood he’ll now decline his $6 million player option after this bounce-back year.

Mariners’ QO debate with Jorge Polanco pits October value against cap room

Even MLB.com’s new free-agent rankings, which credit Polanco with a strong regular season (.265/.326/.495, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 134 OPS+) and a star-turn October, stop short of framing the QO as a slam dunk. Translation: it’s tempting, and still a gamble. 

Here’s the math problem. The QO is a one-year pact at a fixed rate ($22.025M). If Polanco accepts, Seattle gets the player — no questions asked — but also takes on a salary that would likely be the highest on the 2026 roster, narrowly topping Luis Castillo’s $21.6 million and landing ahead of Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh’s 2026 figures. That’s not abstract; it’s right there on the books. Even with a healthy overall payroll, a single $22 million chip materially shapes your winter, especially for a club that has made a point about keeping 2026 spending strong but disciplined. 

If Seattle does extend the QO and Polanco declines, the leverage moves to Seattle’s side: they gain a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere, and they’ve still signaled real interest in a reunion on a multi-year, lower AAV deal. That’s the “have your cake” outcome, asset in hand, flexibility preserved, and the door still open to bring him back on terms that better fit a busy offseason.

Historically, most players offered a QO do decline (only 14 of 144 accepted since 2012), which nudges the odds toward this scenario. But history isn’t a contract, and Polanco’s decision would hinge on whether the market values his 2025 rebound plus October heroics more than the one-year certainty. 

If Seattle passes on the QO entirely, the logic tracks with MLB.com’s prediction: you avoid the risk of an over-market one-year hit, you keep powder dry for other needs, and you try to beat the field with years-over-dollars efficiency. It’s also consistent with the club’s recent posture.

So what’s the call? The Mariners can justify a QO only if they’re comfortable with the worst-case outcome: paying top-of-roster money for a bat that, while clutch in October, ran hot-cold over the summer. If they’re not, the cleaner path is to skip the QO and try to win a bidding war on years rather than on AAV — or to pivot that $22 million of flexibility into multiple pieces. There’s no wrong way to reward a postseason hero; but there is a wrong way to price one. Seattle’s front office has to decide whether October’s glow is a guiding light, or a mirage.