Every Mariners free agent for coming offseason and who is most likely to stay

Riddle me this: What do you get if you cross a two-time All-Star, World Series champion, former Gold Glover and one of the best hitters in baseball versus lefties? Answer: Four Mariners players who will conceivably all no longer be in Seattle following the 2026 season.

The players in question are Randy Arozarena, J.P. Crawford, Rob Refsnyder and Víctor Robles. Arozarena, Crawford and Refsnyder are all pending free agents, while Robles is at the mercy of a 2027 team option worth $9 million.

It's not exactly the most extensive list of prospective free agents, but as the collective resume alludes to, we're talking about some big names who've helped get the Mariners to this window as a genuine World Series contender. Let's take a look at their respective chances of remaining with the team past 2026.

The most accomplished players in the quartet are also the most likely to leave the Mariners

Randy Arozarena

On the one hand, Arozarena has the most impressive career to date among the four players, and yet paradoxically he is the least likely to return after this season. As talented as he undoubtedly is, he has a propensity to get in his own way and bring out the less positive version of Randy just being Randy.

The mercurial 31-year-old is someone who's won an ALCS MVP, but is equally capable of not even bothering to swing at pitches; someone who can be the life and soul of the party on the field, but also one of the quietest people in the clubhouse. As such, perhaps it shouldn't have been that much of a surprise he caused the whole unnecessary Handshakegate drama with Cal Raleigh during the WBC.

There's been the suggestion that Arozarena was hurt by being traded to Seattle by the Tampa Bay Rays and has never really gotten over, which might explain a lot. In any event, we suspect what happened with the amiable and ultimate teammate Raleigh was probably the deal-breaker for his future with the Mariners, no matter his genuine game-changing ability and ongoing 30-30 upside.

J.P. Crawford

Crawford is the longest tenured player on this Mariners roster, with him being traded to the organization from Philadelphia in December of 2018. He's since gone on to establish himself as one of the most popular members of the clubhouse (as well as a leader), although at times this popularity hasn't always been there within the fanbase.

Originally selected 16th overall in the 2013 draft, this high selection alluded to a talent level which at its peak saw the 31-year-old win a Gold Glove in 2020 and become a 5.2 bWAR player receiving AL MVP votes in 2023. He's also proven to be extremely clutch, with his 146 wRC+ in high leverage situations ranked tied-ninth all-time. (Although there is the proviso that FanGraphs only began tracking wRC+ in 2002.)

However, Crawford hasn't always been the most consistent of bats during his time in Seattle, his defense isn't what it used to be, and Colt Emerson is on the way up sooner than later. We don't anticipate a trade this season by the M's — it could fracture the clubhouse similar to when Paul Sewald was moved — but the writing is on the wall for his time as starting shortstop for the Mariners.

The most likely to return to the Mariners next season despite pondering retirement last year

Rob Refsnyder

It's been mentioned once or 100 times that the Mariners' signing of Refsnyder was one of the smartest moves made during the offseason, as they addressed a need for more right-handed bats. Of added significance he's been a demon versus lefies since the beginning of 2022, ranking fifth in the majors with a .312 batting average among all right-handed hitters with at least 500 plate appearances and sixth with a .924 OPS.

The just-turned 35-year-old is a platoon player who has a career-high of 93 games — although this was just two seasons ago — but he's a leader who works bloody hard and fits right in with the mentality of the likes of Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and Brendan Donovan. And yet if you're a Mariners fan, it's probably best not to get too used to having him in Seattle.

The reality is that Refsnyder hinted at retirement last year before signalling his intention to keep playing, and with him not exactly getting any younger, you imagine thoughts of hanging up his cleats will only become more prominent. Having said that, the $6.5 million deal he signed with the Mariners was more than triple his previous high, so if he enjoys this season in Seattle and they offer him enough money again, it's possible he might come back.

Víctor Robles

Of our quartet, Robles is the one who arguably has the most to gain or lose, in part due to the aforementioned team option which would see him earn nearly double his $5.12 million salary for this season. The question is, what do the Mariners have in someone who was originally hailed as a five-tool player?

Is it the player who made an immediate impact in Seattle after signing in early June two years ago, proving himself as a productive leadoff hitter and regularly showing off his heat seeking missile of an arm from the outfield? Or the player who struggled after returning from his dislocated left shoulder late last season and did little in spring training this year with a .186 batting average and .518 OPS?

As talented as Robles undoubtedly is, the harsh reality is that he's flattered to deceive more often than not during his time in the majors and the Mariners clearly didn't want to take any chances, hence why Refsnyder was signed. The pressure is now on for the 2019 World Series champion to prove his worth and while the M's would love to see him replicate his 2024 form, there's plenty of people who remain unconvinced that it's going to happen just based on his overall track record.