Demoted Emerson Hancock is back to being a Mariners bust after short-lived breakout

Arguably the crowning glory of the Jerry Dipoto era has been his ability to discover, draft and develop starting pitching, as evidenced by Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. However, it seems this success isn't going to extend to Emerson Hancock and that's despite him having the highest draft status, as a sixth overall pick in 2020.

After a ho-hum first two seasons of Major League action which included sporadic flashes of Hancock's potential, it finally seemed as if he had cracked it in 2025. With injuries that caused Gilbert, Kirby, and Miller to miss extended periods of time, the righty was stepping up the challenge and helping the rotation.

Hancock made 11 starts between April 17 and June 15 and in 61.2 combined innings he recorded a 3.65 ERA, 45 strikeouts and 20 walks, with the Mariners going 7-4 in those games. His only bad outing in that period was a shellacking by the New York Yankees in a 11-5 loss, but overall it appeared he was finally showing what he was capable of.

Things starting to fall apart for Emerson Hancock

Since then, the 26-year-old has produced a 9.60 ERA, eight strikeouts and nine walks in 15.0 combined innings over three starts and on Wednesday, as per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, the Mariners decided to option him to Triple-A. Just like that, he's gone back to being perceived as a draft bust after his short-lived breakout.

Hancock's recent slump included giving up six hits, four walks and nine earned runs in 4.0 innings on the road during a 10-7 loss to the Chicago Cubs. Some will point to the hot and windy conditions on the day combined with how much scoring there was in general during that three-game series, but giving up a career-high nine earned runs is still not something you can dismiss.

The Thomasville, Georgia native was better in his next start versus the Minnesota Twins, but then completely fell apart again in his most recent outing, against the Kansas City Royals. he allowed seven hits, three walk and five earned runs in 6.0 innings of the 6-3 loss with, as per FanGraphs, a noteworthy 2.0 mph dip in his average fastball velocity from his season high of 96.0 mph against the San Diego Padres.

Actually projected to be worst season for the Mariners

What's particularly interesting is that despite seemingly having more periods of consistency compared to last season, Hancock's statistical projections as things stand for 2025 are actually his worst. His 5.47 ERA, 68 ERA+, 1.435 WHIP and 9.0 walk-rate would actually all be career-highs.

The situation is only compounded by looking at the University of Georgia alumni's underwhelming Baseball Savant page. Among other things he's below the 10th percentile rankings in pitching run value, breaking run value, offspeed run value, xERA, xBA and strike percentage.

Where Hancock goes from here will be worth keeping an eye on, especially with Logan Evans looking tremendous on Thursday versus the Royals and Miller set to return from injury during July. Of course everyone connected with the Mariners organization wants Hancock to succeed, but at this stage his long-term future as a regular member of the rotation looks as uncertain as ever.