Is there any hope for Mariners' Emerson Hancock after latest demotion?

Emerson Hancock was supposed to be the future of the Seattle Mariners' rotation.

After being selected sixth overall in the 2020 draft, he immediately shot up to third on the team's prospect rankings for MLB Pipeline, right below Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodríguez and right above Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. He received rave reviews from scouts and it seemed like he was already making big improvements after leaving college.

Despite much of the other young talent around him finding their way to the big leagues and becoming mainstays on the roster, Hancock remained a prospect, debuting in 2023 but struggling with the step up in competition and spending the majority of his time in the minors. Last year provided a great opportunity for him to prove himself with Bryan Woo sidelined with injury for much of the year, but Hancock posted a 4.75 ERA over his 12 starts with a 1.34 WHIP and unimpressive peripherals. As soon as Woo returned to the rotation, Hancock was sent back to Triple-A Tacoma.

New year, same Emerson Hancock

After some impressive outings in spring training this year, Hancock once again ignited hope that he could finally be an effective starter. Seattle already has five solid arms, but a surplus of talent could always drive a trade to acquire more hitting talent, a department the Mariners are still lacking.

Unfortunately, his first start left more than a little to be desired, conceding six earned runs while getting just two outs against the Tigers. The worst part? Probably giving up a two-run double on a sweeper to notorious whiff merchant Javier Báez.

Hancock was quickly sent back to Triple-A Tacoma, where he'll remain for the foreseeable future. Although he's in a less competitive environment, he still ran into some issues in his first outing and it's starting to seem like the issues are simply too big to iron out.

Across the 60.2 innings of big-league data, we can see that he couldn't miss opposing bats. A whiff rate of just 21.9 percent and a strikeout rate of just 14.7 percent paired poorly with a hard-hit rate of 46.0 percent and led to much of the damage. It's not like he was unaware of these weaknesses and worked actively in the offseason to make improvements

Based on the data from his lone start against the Tigers, we can see two things: his average velocity jumped up a few miles an hour and it seems like he wants to use the sinker as his new primary pitch over the four-seam fastball. This could be an attempt to soften the contact he's getting and lean into his tendency to find opposing bats rather than trying to force a massive jump in whiff rate. The Mariners were actively tweaking his arsenal ahead of the season, but we'll need to see more pitches and innings thrown before we can see if these adjustments were actually effective.

So what will his future hold? It's always hard to say but it wouldn't be surprising to learn that his time in the Mariners organization is drawing to a close.

The front office has plenty of decisions to make regarding which starters they'll want to retain and Hancock hasn't exactly made a very strong case to have a spot. It's possible that a change of scenery is what he needs to live up to his prospect pedigree but it's a certainty that he hasn't been able to prove it in Seattle.