Competing Tarik Skubal trade narratives are giving Mariners fans whiplash

After what happened last offseason, perhaps Seattle Mariners fans should just be grateful that the team has been involved with seemingly everything and everyone this winter. But when it comes to Tarik Skubal, simply trying to know what to think is liable to bring on a migraine.

The news cycle on the two-time Cy Young Award winner has been going back and forth all offseason, and the Mariners have been caught in the middle like a rag doll being fought over by two pit bulls. They were in, they were out, and then the Skubal buzz seemed to die out altogether for a second.

But since the Winter Meetings began on Monday, the buzz has kicked up again. Detroit Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris is out there in Orlando, Florida telling everyone he doesn't believe in untouchables. That's a naked allusion to Skubal, for whom David Schoenfield of ESPN has picked the Mariners as the best trade fit for Detroit.

Mariners fans are getting whiplash from competing Tarik Skubal trade narratives

It was only a couple days ago that Adam Jude of The Seattle Times wrote about how the Mariners were unlikely to make any major alterations to their starting rotation, either by trading for Skubal or trading away Luis Castillo.

With Skubal in particular, the logic has always been straightforward: the Mariners just aren't the type of team to pay a huge price to rent out his walk year, as he'll be a free agent in line for potentially a $400 million deal next winter.

Simultaneously, though, what remains true even after their trade of Harry Ford is that the Mariners have enough talent to satisfy what is sure to be a huge ask on the Tigers' part. And Schoenfield made still another interesting point about why the Mariners make more sense than, say, the New York Mets. Whereas the latter can simply wait to sign Skubal as a free agent, a trade now is the only hope Seattle has of adding Skubal for a playoff run.

"The most likely fit for Skubal is a team that's missing a potential final player," he writes, "but wouldn't be a candidate to sign him as a free agent -- and it must have a strong farm system. That's the Mariners."

Is Skubal really the missing link for the Mariners' 2026 roster? Not if we're talking needs, as they more so need hitters and another reliever. Yet he remains the best possible player they can acquire, and having him in the rotation would give the roster some nice superstar balance between him on the mound and Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez in the lineup.

Yet the pin that invariably bursts the bubble remains the same. The Mariners would have to pay a veritable king's ransom — i.e., maybe one of George Kirby and Bryce Miller, plus multiple top-100 prospects — to score Skubal, and the risk-reward ratio would still be lopsided.

Trading for Skubal and then winning the World Series in 2026 would make it all worth it, yet even heavy favorites only begin a season with 20-ish percent odds of winning it all. And if the Mariners were to fall short, then they'd have to say goodbye to Skubal and face a future with fewer young cornerstones to build on.

This is not to say that the Mariners shouldn't try to get as good as possible, but there simply have to be less risky ways of doing it. A trade for Ketel Marte, for example, would bring back an offensive superstar who'd be under contract through 2030. And while only Skubal is Skubal, a trade for Hunter Greene would bring back a younger pitcher with No. 1 upside and cost control through at least 2028.

This is not to say that anyone would be disappointed if the Mariners were to somehow pull off a blockbuster for Skubal. But to actually expect it to happen could be a long wait for a train that might not come, and which might lead to a place nobody wants to go if it does.