Mariners have 1 good reason to want Tarik Skubal — even if they don't need him

The Seattle Mariners pulling off a blockbuster trade for Tarik Skubal is no longer the stuff of fan fiction. The short version of what came out on Wednesday is that the Detroit Tigers could be open to moving him, and that the Mariners are expected to be interested.

Judging from what's on social media, what nobody can seem to agree on is whether the Mariners trading for Skubal is actually a good idea.

This has nothing to do with Skubal's quality as a pitcher, which nobody in Seattle doubts even after the Mariners went 4-0 in games he started against them this year. He's going to win his second Cy Young Award next week, and it will be well-deserved after he led the American League with a 2.21 ERA, a 0.891 WHIP and a 7.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Mariners don't need Tarik Skubal, but they have one good reason to want him

The bigger issue — as SoDo Mojo's Tremayne Person covered on October 22 — concerns the intimidating risk/reward calculus of trading for Skubal.

He'd strictly be a one-year rental ahead of his free agency after 2026, which could ultimately result in a $400 million payday, and yet his acquisition cost could consist of multiple top-100 prospects. And while the Mariners do have eight of those on MLB Pipeline's list, sacrificing several of them for the sake of the starting rotation would arguably be wasteful.

Though the rotation was weighed down and ultimately undone by injuries and unexpectedly poor performances in 2025, it was made up of the same guys who comprised the best rotation in MLB in 2024. And all of them — Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo — will be back in 2026.

The Mariners have more pressing needs, most notably at first base and third base, plus an amorphous Jorge Polanco-shaped hole at second base and DH. They could also use a high-leverage reliever and a right field upgrade. Trading for Skubal would, of course, resolve none of these issues.

Yet even if the Mariners don't need Skubal, they have at least one good reason to want him: He's the best player they can possibly acquire this winter.

After coming just one win short of finally going to the World Series, maximally upgrading should certainly be the goal for the Mariners this winter. And to this end, Skubal is one of only five players who have topped 6 rWAR in each of the last two seasons. Here are the other four:

• Aaron Judge
• Shohei Ohtani
• Juan Soto
• Bobby Witt Jr.

Basically, this particular club consists of Skubal and four players the Mariners can't trade for. And unless Paul Skenes (yeah, right), José Ramírez (doubtful) or Ketel Marte (eh, maybe) is made available, there isn't another cream-of-the-crop type who could be had by way of the Mariners' prospect riches.

As for the free agent market, nobody expects the Mariners to drop between $300 and $400 million on Kyle Tucker. Even he has yet to reach 6 rWAR even once in his career, and the market doesn't feature any other candidates to do so.

Acquiring Skubal would add a projected $17.8 million salary to the Mariners' books, which would eat up a big chunk of their roughly $30-35 million budget for the offseason. But there would potentially still be enough to re-sign Josh Naylor, and that's without considering a subsequent trade of Castillo that could free up as much as $24.15 million.

As such, a Skubal trade need not be the one and only big move the Mariners make this winter. And even if it was, the subsequent roadmap for 2026 wouldn't be a convoluted mess: ride an elite rotation to the playoffs, and then hope it has enough gas to make the World Series.

Skubal would be key for the latter part. It was only because of Detroit's dismal offense that having him start two games wasn't the Mariners' doom in the ALDS. And had the Tigers survived, he could have ended up playing the same hero role that instead went to Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

You don't need to squint to see a more optimal offseason for the Mariners. If they can re-sign Naylor and Polanco, upgrade over Eugenio Suárez at third base, add a high-leverage arm and round out their depth, the result would be an ironclad roster.

Yet even if it can all be done, that's a lot that needs to go right. A Skubal trade, on the other hand, carries a straightforward simplicity: get it done, and you've won the offseason with one move.