A compelling Tarik Skubal trade alternative could fall into the Mariners' lap

For weeks, every big-idea Seattle Mariners conversation has funneled back to the same name in Detroit. Tarik Skubal has been the tidy version of the fantasy: a left-handed Cy Young Award winner at the peak of his powers, a true top-of-the-rotation anchor with numbers that fit perfectly inside Seattle’s run-prevention fortress — and, just to sweeten it, a homecoming of sorts for the former Seattle University standout.

On paper, he looks custom-built for T-Mobile Park, the kind of plug-and-play ace you can sell to the clubhouse, the fanbase, and ownership in one breath. If the Mariners are ever going to cash in elite prospect capital for a headline move, that’s the archetype: proven, durable enough, marketable, safe enough. But anchoring your entire offseason vision to the cleanest prize on the board comes with its own tax. Everyone is in. The acquisition cost is radioactive. And even the most aggressive front offices eventually find a line they won’t cross.

Why Hunter Greene might be the Mariners’ most realistic frontline splash

That’s why Hunter Greene should make Mariners fans sit up a little straighter. Tucked inside Bob Nightengale’s USA Today GM Meetings rundown was a key sentence: despite the Reds’ public denials, they’re still expected to listen on Greene, with every indication that it would take an overwhelming, now-and-future type offer to pry him loose.

Strip away the caveats and that’s the signal. An elite young arm with frontline stuff, cost certainty and club control is at least theoretically available. And for a Seattle team hunting for a Skubal-caliber swing without necessarily paying the Skubal-caliber tax, Greene is the kind of alternative that doesn’t just check boxes — it dares you to think bigger.

Let’s start with the profile. Greene comes with more red flags than Skubal: a high-velocity workload, a real injury file, and no 190-inning security blanket to point to yet. But you don’t have to squint to see why a team like the Mariners should be obsessed. He’s still only 26 years old, under control on a team-friendly deal — about $39 million over the next three seasons with a club option beyond that. 

This comes at a time when mid-rotation arms are clearing that annually in free agency. Nightengale is right about one thing: the Reds aren’t finding a better arm at a friendlier rate. And underneath the ERA snapshots, the stuff is cartoonish. Public models and pitch data have consistently graded Greene among the filthiest starters in the sport, with top-tier Stuff+ and a pitch mix (upper-90s heater that can touch triple digits, vicious slider, growing feel for the change) that screams “T-Mobile cheat code” once you drop him into Seattle’s run-suppressing environment and development infrastructure. 

Of course, that kind of upside isn’t coming cheap, and this is where the fit turns from message-board daydream into an actual framework. The Reds badly need offense. Real, controllable impact, not just stopgaps — and the Mariners are one of the few clubs positioned to deal from that exact surplus without detonating their core.

A package built around Colt Emerson, Michael Arroyo, and catcher Luke Stevenson is heavy, no question. Emerson is a potential foundational bat with on-base polish and projection; Arroyo brings infield versatility and impact contact skills; Stevenson offers offensive upside at a premium spot. But that’s precisely the level you enter when you’re talking about buying multiple prime years of a potential No. 1 with cost certainty.

Greene isn’t a one-year Corbin Burnes rental; he lives in the Chris Sale/Garrett Crochet tier of trade math. For Seattle, dealing from a stacked shortstop/infielder pipeline and emerging catching depth is painful, but it’s not reckless.

Drop Greene into a post-Castillo (assuming he’s the pitcher traded) rotation and run-prevention ecosystem with Bryce Miller, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo, and you’re not just backfilling a hole — you’re reloading with a group that can still stand next to anyone’s in October, with Greene as the same kind of ceiling-raising swing Skubal would’ve been, just built through a different arm and a different bet.

And that’s the point. The Skubal chase is easy to sell because it feels safe and familiar. Greene is the bolder play. If Detroit’s price on Skubal turns this winter into a staring contest, Seattle doesn’t have to walk away empty-handed. They can be the team that tests how serious Cincinnati is about listening, dangles a real offensive solution, and bets big on the filthiest arm in the room.