Cade Cavalli's Nationals extension ups heat on Mariners to finally lock up a starter

Say what you will about Jerry Dipoto, but one thing he's been good at in his time with the Seattle Mariners is locking up core players. Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, Colt Emerson and Andrés Muñoz can vouch. So could Luis Castillo before he left town.

Yet since the other thing Dipoto is known for is developing homegrown starting pitchers, it's a little weird that he has yet to lock up any of his greatest successes for the long haul. Logan Gilbert? Nothing. George Kirby? Nothing. And so on until you get the gist for Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock and Bryce Miller.

Here's where Dipoto is swimming against a tide that other MLB teams are abiding by. Signing pitchers to long-term deals is never not scary, but the appetite for doing so with homegrown types remains reasonably strong. Just this year, there have been deals for Chase Burns and now Cade Cavalli.

FanSided's Robert Murray broke the Cavalli news, reporting on Thursday that the right-hander and the Washington Nationals are "closing in" on an agreement. He's currently under club control through 2029, with Mark Zuckerman of Nats Journal reporting that the deal will buy out at least one of Cavalli's free agent years.

Cavalli earned this. It wasn't all smooth sailing after he went to the Nats with the No. 22 pick in the 2020 draft, yet the 28-year-old has now cashed in on a breakout season marked by a 3.12 ERA over 31 starts.

If the Mariners are going to extend a starting pitcher, who should it be?

There's no rule that says the Mariners have to act next, yet Cavalli's deal is the latest to underline the question of whether Dipoto will ever bother to forge a lasting partnership with one of the club's prized arms.

The ship has likely already sailed on Gilbert, who's probably more of a trade candidate than an extension candidate with his free-agent walk year due up in 2027. Sticking with the nautical metaphors, Kirby and Miller are probably in a different boat entirely. Both are trending down with their performances as they inch toward their walk years in 2028 and 2029, respectively.

By process of elimination, this leaves Woo and Hancock.

Woo looked like a shoo-in as a logical extension candidate back in January, when he was coming off an All-Star breakout in 2025 and still one season away from arbitration-eligibility in 2027. Though he's taken a step back this year, he still rates strongly according to several metrics. As such, both player and team could be motivated to get to a fair deal.

Hancock is a more interesting case, if for no other reason than because he might be the Mariners' best bet for something team-friendly. He struggled for years to break through before finally doing so this year, and he still won't be arbitration-eligible until 2028. He's also 27, whereas Woo is 26. If one of them is more likely to take an extension that's as much lifeline as cash grab, it's probably Hancock.

Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan are technically possibilities as well, albeit unlikely ones. Now that Anderson has debuted, the Mariners might have missed their best chance to circumvent the Scott Boras problem. Sloan's upside is through the roof, yet he's still just 20 years old and still working on putting it all together.

So, all signs point to Woo and/or Hancock. And given that there isn't a shortage of relevant comparisons around MLB, the only question may be whether Dipoto will finally show a real willingness to get something done. And under the circumstances, he can't be leaving any stones unturned as far as throwing bones to the fanbase.

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