A Mariners fan's guide to Randy Arozarena's upcoming MLB free agency

The general sentiment is Randy Arozarena will not return to Seattle next season, with the long-standing implication he was never happy about being traded from Tampa Bay. You also assume he will be well-placed for a lucrative payday, given the dearth of (and still declining) quality outfielder right-handed hitters. However, wherever he ends up, fans of that team must realize they'll be getting an enigmatic personality who's as likely to have you cheering as pulling your hair out in frustration.

We've coined the phrase before of "Randy being Randy" to encapsulate the full Arozarena experience. When he's the positive version of this, you're getting a potent offensive threat who has proven his ability to deliver in high-pressure situations. However, the flip side gives you someone who at times acts like he doesn't even care, whether it be not bothering to swing at pitches or showing an alarming lack of hustle.

The Mariners have been fortunate to see more of the positive version of Arozarena this year, with him proving to be their most consistent offensive threat and on course to set a new career-high for both fWAR and bWAR. He ranks in the 94th percentile for Batting Run Value and the 91st percentile for Baserunning Run Value, which are both projected to be single-season bests.

Randy Arozarena is capable of listening to other people... sometimes

A big part of Arozarena's success is having a more nuanced approach in the batter's box, shifting his focus away from hitting for power, to just putting the ball in play. He has clearly embraced this advice from the Mariners coaches, with his ability to spray balls all over the whole field making him even more dangerous.

Another positive indicator of Arozarena's improved approach at the plate is being projected for a career-low 21.1 percent strikeout rate. Not that he's the personification of patience at the plate, with his 21.7 percent non-competitive swings in the chase and waste areas threatening to surpass his career-high of 21.8 percent, set in 2022. Overall though, he's an ongoing threat to get on base in any number of ways; heck, he even led the majors with a career-high 27 hit by pitches last season and is fourth this year.

Understandably, many will put Arozarena's more consistent offense down to him purely being motivated by aiming to get as big a payday as possible. However. this isn't entirely true about wanting to present the best possible version of himself. And the main argument to back this up is is his lack of effort on defense.

Not exactly the consumate Mariners teammate

It might sound disrespectful to accuse Arozarena of lollygagging, given a resume which includes three All-Star selections, most home runs in a single postseason and an ALCS MVP, but this doesn't mean it's not true. He repeatedly shows no urgency to get to balls, with a prime example coming when he failed to snag a foul pop fly during a game last month in Tampa Bay. An almost guaranteed out turned into a homer by Cedric Mullins on the very next pitch and Luis Castillo was visibly frustrated as he stared in the direction of his left fielder.

Even if you remove the effort aspect, the reality is Arozarena is just a bad defender in general. His Arm Value ranks in the 11th percentile and his Range (OAA) is in the 15th percentile, while his -8.7 defensive fWAR projects to potentially set a new career-low. Perhaps the solution is to move him to DH, but he prefers to be play in the field so he is more engaged, as contradictory as this might sound given his lack of hustle.

As Arozarena's reluctance to play more DH and lack of effort to help Castillo get an out might suggest, he's not exactly the consummate teammate. Many will remember the controversy at the World Baseball Classic, when he attempted to get Cal Raleigh to shake his hand, despite being told ahead of time not to. Why put Raleigh in an unwinnable position, effectively trying to get him to go against the wishes of Team USA, and then compounding things with an expletive-ridden grievance to the media?

This alludes to more evidence of Arozarena's unpredictable and at times contradictory behavior. He often has a big smile on the field, but also apparently doesn't have much of a sense of humor. He can give the impression of an extrovert by taking mid-game selfies with fans, but is also one of the quietest people in the clubhouse, often keeping to himself.

So what is Randy Arozarena's market value?

This all leads to the question of how likeable and marketable Arozarena is or, more to the point, how much does his makeup either grow or negate his potential value? Can he command something similar to Anthony Santander's five-year, $92.5 million deal with the Blue Jays or Teoscar Hernandez's three-year, $66 million contract with the Dodgers? More? Less?

Overall, arguably the best way to summarize Arozarena is as a very good hitter, who is a bad defender and now on the wrong side of 30. We do believe he will do well on the free agent market, just because of how productive he is offensively, combined with the aforementioned reference to a dearth of quality available outfield right-handed bats. He's fully capable of being a 20-20 guy with 30-30 upside for a few more years yet.

Just don't say we didn't warn you about Arozarena's unpredictable nature and questionable clubhouse presence. And woe betide anymore who attempts to get him to focus more on being utilized as a DH, in an attempt to limit his defensive foibles. It's all just "Randy being Randy," for better and worse.

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